Retire early with a nice, fat lump sum to fund your retirement?
You've got to be kidding. For most baby boomers it will be
challenge enough just to retire debt-free.
While government and the super industry debate about whether 9
per cent compulsory super will be sufficient for the average
worker, the generation that missed out is reaching "that age" with
inadequate super and virtually no chance of catching up.
An associate professor at NATSEM at the University of Canberra,
Simon Kelly, says the average super account balance for males aged
60 to 64 is just $135,000. For females, it is less than half that -
$62,000.
If you'd like an income of at least $50,000 in retirement, that
doesn't come close. Including the age pension, the average male
retiring at 65 with $135,000 could fund their desired income for
less than three years before relying solely on government
benefits.
But even that's overstating the case. Kelly says the "average"
figure is highly skewed by a few individuals with very large super
balances. He says the median account balance for men is $33,000 and
for women it is zero. That's right - at least half the women in
this age group have absolutely no super.
The figures for 50- to 59-year-olds are not much better. Kelly
says the median account for men in this group is $44,000 and
$10,000 for women. It makes a joke of super's role in providing an
income in retirement. For many of these people, Kelly says, their
super will be swallowed the moment they buy something. For many
retirees, buying a new car is the first thing they do with their
money - and the average woman doesn't even have enough to do
that.
To make matters worse, he says a growing number of people will
retire with debt. Previous generations, which tended to distrust
debt, may not have had a lot of super but most retired with their
mortgage and other debts paid off.
But baby boomers and subsequent generations have grown up with
debt and maintain debt later in life. Kelly says they are also the
"sandwich generation", with adult children and-or ageing parents to
consider. Borrowing to fund costs such as house extensions is not
uncommon as they near retirement.
In a 2008 report for AMP, NATSEM found the number of people age
60 or over and still paying off a mortgage had doubled in 10 years
(9.5 per cent in 2005-06 compared with 4.2 per cent in 1995-96).
This age group also had the biggest jump in housing stress, up
about 80 per cent from 5.3 per cent in 1995-96 to 9.5 per cent in
2005-06.
"Unlike their parents, who regarded debt as evil and to be paid
off as quickly as possible, many baby boomers are carrying debt
into their retirement years as well," says the national manager for
advice development at IPAC Securities, John Dani. "Most of that
debt is in the mortgage. It's the result of constantly upsizing to
a bigger or better house or moving to a better suburb as a reward
for all that hard work. It's also due to the advent of home equity
loans, which allow borrowers to draw on their home equity for
renovations or to take a world trip."
The harsh reality is that for many baby boomers, the first call
on their super payout will be paying off debt, not setting up a
portfolio to provide an income through retirement.
"There used to be a myth that retirees would blow their lump sum
on a caravan or overseas trip," says the managing director of
superannuation for Russell Investments, Steven Schubert. "But the
reality for the majority is that if they do blow the money it will
be on things like paying off debt - and it's hard to argue against
doing that. People also use those early retirement years to set
themselves up by doing things like replacing cars and whitegoods so
they won't be breaking down when they're 75. That's also a
reasonable thing to do.
"But if you have a $100,000 lump sum but pay off $20,000 debt
and you want to upgrade your whitegoods and car and keep some money
aside for a rainy day, there's not a lot left."
Kelly says many baby boomers have become used to a comfortable
standard of living and won't take kindly to curbing their
lifestyle. "A lot of them have two incomes and may be living on
something like $100,000 a year," he says. "But if they have to use
their savings to pay off debt then live on the age pension it will
be quite a severe drop for them."
The chief executive of the Australian Institute of
Superannuation Trustees, Fiona Reynolds, says the debate about
super often overlooks the fact that there are haves and have-nots.
The have-nots are generally workers closer to retirement who have
not had the benefit of super all their working lives and women, who
typically earn less and spend more time out of the workforce.
The institute's modelling shows the average annual compulsory
super rate for olders workers - indeed for probably half the
current workforce - is 5 per cent or less, well below the 9 per
cent for a full working life that the government uses in its
modelling. In some cases, for women that have taken time out of the
workforce, it is 2 per cent or 3 per cent.
Kelly says male white-collar workers are "probably OK" as many
had super before it became compulsory and have saved over longer
periods. But blue-collar workers and women are in greater strife,
particularly women - many of whom have only returned to the
workforce in their later years and tend to work in part-time or
casual jobs.
The Investment and Financial Services Association recently
estimated the average Australian was underfunded by $73,000 -
though the situation is much worse for the "have-nots" than for
those with substantial super savings. Rice Warner Actuaries, which
conducted the IFSA research, says underfunding is not surprising
when you realise you need to contribute 20 per cent to 30 per cent
of salary during a full career to provide a defined benefit
lifetime pension of 60 per cent of salary in retirement. For most
of us, that's impossible.
To guarantee a comfortable living in retirement, it says,
middle-income workers would need to build a super account worth as
much as their family home. For most, this is not practical and they
will need to retire later or adjust to a lower income in
retirement.
Dani says many people have the false belief that their expenses
will magically halve when they stop working, so they don't have to
worry too much about retirement savings. "The reality is you spend
as much, if not more, in the first few years of retirement," he
says.
The graph, from Rice Warner, shows incomes (and spending) drop
substantially from age 65, with many being limited to the age
pension. It says there is also a trend for self-funded retirees to
spend their super in the first 10 to 15 years of retirement before
relying on government benefits.
However, many surveys show future retirees have much higher
expectations, with most saying they will need incomes of $40,000 or
$50,000 or more.
Schubert says a rough rule of thumb is that you need $20 to $25
of savings for every $1 of annual income you want in retirement if
you're planning to live to the average life expectancy and you want
to protect your income against inflation. So that $50,000 income
could require $1 million-$1.25 million. But he says this isn't
quite as scary as it sounds. Whether we like it or not, most
retirees will continue to get a fair chunk of their retirement
income from a full or part age pension. The government's own
estimates show 75 per cent of retirees will still get a pension in
40 years' time; the only difference super will make is more will be
receiving a part pension rather than the age pension alone.
Schubert says the critical thing for over-40s is to be putting
aside what money they can. "While saving may not get you to what
you'd ideally like, the combination of saving and a part pension
will allow you to achieve a modest income," he says.
He says people "shouldn't be fooled into thinking there is a
magic investment that will provide higher returns and turn around
their savings shortfall". Unfortunately this usually results in
investors taking risks they can ill afford and can make them worse
off.
Dani says repayments on non-deductible debt, such as a mortgage,
is one of the best investments you can get. As the family home is
also exempt from capital gains tax, and the age pension income and
assets tests, it is also attractive from a tax and benefits point
of view. Schubert says whether or not you own your home is a big
contributor to how well off you are in retirement. While non-home
owners get a higher pension, he says it is not enough to compensate
for the added costs and lack of security in not owning your
home.
But he says if you end up with a $600,000 house and just $50,000
in savings to live on, you might need to rethink how your assets
are weighted. Downsizing may be an option - though there are costs
in doing so that may outweigh the benefits. Kelly says reverse
mortgages, where you borrow against the equity in your home, may
also appeal more to the baby boomers than to their parents, however
Schubert says they should be treated with caution.
"I wouldn't plan on pulling out $100,000 and building up a big
debt early in retirement but they may play a role in supplementing
your income as your investments start to run down," he says.
If you're counting on an inheritance to get you out of trouble,
Dani's advice is simple. Don't. He says modern medicine has
transformed many fatal conditions into chronic illnesses that will
eat away at the pool of available funds. With life expectancies
growing, you may also find that inheritance is further off than you
expected.
Dani says the reality is many people are going to have to work
longer to have any chance of living comfortably once they stop
working. Fortunately, there is already a growing "abhorrence" of
the idea of a traditional retirement as many people start to scale
down their working hours rather than quitting the workforce
completely.
"Working well into your 60s will become more and more the norm,"
he says. "Not purely for financial reasons but because of the skill
base and knowledge older workers have to offer."
But Dani says it also makes sound financial sense. "We call it
the positive double-whammy," he says. "Not only are you continuing
to accumulate super and allowing it to compound but you're not
drawing on your capital to live on. Our rule of thumb is that every
additional year of work after 55 adds another three to four years
to the life expectancy of your capital when you retire."
Don't fancy working any longer than you have to? Then maybe this
will persuade you. As John Dani of IPAC Securities points out,
working longer gives a double financial benefit. Not only are you
putting off the date when you start to spend savings but you're
continuing to save and enjoying compounding returns while you do
it.
To show what a difference it can make, IPAC's head of technical
services, Colin Lewis, looked at the case of Jack and Jill, both
57, who are hoping to retire at 58. They spend $52,000 before tax
and want to maintain this through retirement.
Jack earns $80,000 and Jill $50,000. They get the 9 per cent
super and own their house.
They can save $50,000 a year after tax and decide to save
$30,000 through Jack salary sacrificing into super and $20,000
outside super.
Jack currently has $135,000 in super and Jill $50,000.
If they stop working at 58, Lewis says, they will have $250,000.
But if they want to live on $52,000 a year, they will run out of
money at age 72 and will have to rely on the pension. That's even
after assuming they get benefits until then and only draw on their
capital to reach their $52,000.
But if they retire at 62, says Lewis, their savings will have
grown to about $544,000. They can fund that $52,000 income (using
their capital and a reduced level of Centrelink benefits) to age
92.
How the numbers stack up
Did you know that of every dollar of private savings you spend
in retirement, just 10 cents will comprise contributions made while
you were working? Thirty cents will
come from investment earnings before you retire and 60 per cent
will come from post-retirement investment returns.
Staggering, isn’t it? But according to the Russell
Investments managing director of superannuation, Steven Schubert,
this is roughly how the numbers stack up for someone who has saved
over a full working life.
He says it shows the high importance of investing well in
retirement. A poorly constructed portfolio, or sticking a large
amount of your money in a ‘‘sure thing’’
that
goes bad, can have a devastating effect on your standard of
living.
"People forget that when they reach retirement theymay have
stopped being a saver but they’re still an investor,"
Schubert says.
But the bad news for the underfunded baby boomers is that the
rule of thumb only stacks up if you have been saving and enjoying
the benefits of compound interest.
‘‘It doesn’t mean saving isn’t
important. If you don’t have money in the system the whole
thing stops working. You can’t make something from
nothing,’’ Schubert explains. His advice to those
approaching retirement? Save what you can while you have the
opportunity. You may not get all the way to where you want to be
but you’ll still be better off than you would have been.