There's nothing like a stockmarket collapse to remind people how
useful defensive investments such as bonds can be. Investors with a
decent allocation to these types of investments enjoyed a buffer
from the financial crisis and, while it may have seemed a drag
during the market rebound of the past nine months, that's more than
compensated for by the insulation it provided on the way down.
Terms such as "income" or "defensive" cover a multitude of
products, styles and ideas. They go from tedious, plodding cash and
bond funds through mortgage funds to high-risk, high-reward credit
products and even into high-yielding stocks. The boxes on this page
highlight the different types of products available and how to tell
them apart.
As a rule of thumb, though, this type of investment has become a
lot simpler since the global financial crisis as the things that
looked clever and lucrative a few years ago were often the ones
that came unstuck. "The last two years have seen an incredible
turnaround in the types of investment people have been considering
for the income component of their portfolio," says the head of
Australian retail at fixed-income experts Pimco, Peter Dorrian.
"If you think back to 2006, bond funds struggled to gain a lot
of traction because the income investment class was dominated by
things like mortgage funds, highly geared property funds and even
hedge fund of funds." But all those areas ran into trouble for one
reason or another and the trend today is towards the
straightforward. "The little old bond market, long forgotten by
investors, has suddenly got increased interest," Dorrian says.
Australian Unity Investments' general manager for retail, Adam
Coughlan, agrees. "Where investors got themselves into trouble in
the financial crisis was with some of the very high-yielding types
of products available," he says. "I would say this: if it seems too
good to be true, it is. Now we're starting to see people using bond
funds more for their traditional, defensive purposes."
Data from fund researcher Morningstar shows that of the 116 new
income funds launched in 2009, 82 were at the straightforward end
of things: Australian cash, Aussie bonds, global bonds or a
combination of the two. Just three mortgage funds appeared.
So what should investors think about when looking for income
products? "There are two related but different roles a defensive
asset can play in your portfolio," Dorrian says. "Firstly, as a
buffer against the volatility of the equity markets and global
asset markets and, secondly, as a provider of income to a portfolio
on a very dependable and reliable basis.
"When you go into any bond fund there are two risks you need to
think about. One is the risk of not getting income; the other is
the risk of not getting 100 cents in the dollar back when it
matures." That risk varies depending on who issued the bond. A
government, for example, can raise taxes to ensure it repays its
debts; a company can't do that and has to rely on its own balance
sheet.
So just as with stocks, an important decision to make is what
level of risk you want to take. Government bonds won't generate
much money but they're unlikely to fall over. Corporate bonds pay
out more, for more risk. Globally, professional investors have
spent much of the past year trying to work out how best to take
advantage of opportunities in what is called credit:
higher-yielding, riskier bonds from companies.
"One trend I've noticed in the last 12 months is an interest in
credit funds, born out of an incredible spike in the yields and
returns available," Dorrian says. Two Pimco funds sold in Australia
have some credit exposure and he says "both have had good inflows
from investors in the last 12 months".
But in an area such as this it is essential to have professional
management involved. It can be difficult for investors to access
and tricky to understand. "We think it is very important for people
to understand the systemic risk in any part of the market they
invest in," says a Russell Investments portfolio manager, Kathy
Cave, says. "When you buy equity there is a list of shares - the
ASX 300, for example - but in fixed income that's not the
case."
International or local
Another decision to make is whether you want international
exposure. "When you're buying an offshore bond, you are taking on a
whole different level and style of risk," Coughlan says. "The first
one investors need to be conscious of is the exchange rate: the
Australian dollar is at historically high levels but if it
continues to go up then income will naturally go down in Australian
dollar terms. That's probably the biggest risk those investors will
face."
The risk Coughlan refers to - that gains on your overseas
investments will be wiped out by a rising Aussie dollar - can be
mitigated: many products offer a hedged and an unhedged version,
giving you a choice about whether you want to be exposed to
movements in currencies.
A separate point, though, is where the best prospects are.
Australia is a high-interest country; the Reserve Bank of Australia
has for many years set interest rates higher than is common in
other major economies such as the US or Japan and the gap is
getting wider now as the bank raises rates while other countries
are still keeping them low as they emerge from the financial
crisis.
"We're a big believer in diversifying your portfolio, so you
need to have exposure outside Australia," Dorrian says. "But the
other side of the argument is that Australia has traditionally been
a higher interest rate country than many around the world; the US
cash rate is virtually zero and it doesn't look like changing until
early 2011. Australia has come through in better shape and
investment returns from the bond markets look pretty promising in
the next 12 to 18 months."
Not everyone agrees about where the opportunities are. "We
actually think international might be more attractive than domestic
bonds at this point," says Cave at Russell, which recently changed
the strategic asset allocation in its multimanager products to
increase the allocation towards international bonds. ING Investment
Management, where Greg Michel is director of fixed income, has a
bias for interest rate exposure in Australia versus Britain, the US
and Japan. In any case, as he points out: "The fixed-income market
is already a global market when you consider the range of issuers
in Australian dollars - a multitude of foreign financial
institutions and supranationals whose businesses are operated, in
the main, well outside Australia. At the same time, most of the
larger iconic Australian companies are active borrowers in foreign
capital markets."
Worth another look
A third question is when is it time to return to unloved assets
- and in particular, mortgage funds? Many of these ran into serious
liquidity problems during the global financial crisis and investors
have not been quick to forgive them, but Coughlan at Australian
Unity argues that many were perhaps misusing them in the first
place.
"The typical mortgage fund was used by two types of investor,"
he says. "The first type was using it as, in effect, a
high-returning bank account. The other type was a pension-style
client who saw a rate of interest better than the banks.
"When the financial crisis hit, the first group were the ones
that didn't want to be trapped in there - they were really using
them not in the way they had been designed." Their attempts to exit
swiftly led to problems such as redemption freezes. But, Coughlan
says, "the lesson has been learnt, removing these investors from
the funds and leaving in place the pension-style client who the
product is best suited for. Most mortgage fund providers by the end
of this quarter will be through that process and we'll see a really
good level of stability from those funds. Things are definitely
looking up for the mortgage fund sector in 2010."
All providers agree that the push towards income products is
driven by a broader change in Australian society. "We are seeing a
demographic shift," the head of retail at Tyndall Investment
Management, Craig Hobart, says. "More baby boomers are approaching
retirement and demand for quality income streams is something we
have identified as a gap." Cave at Russell speaks of "a focus on
people who are in the post-accumulation, decumulation phase of
their lives". She says: "They are no longer accumulating super but
are starting to use it."
Michel says people wanting a fund for income should weigh up the
following key considerations in choosing a fund: the stability of
the income stream; the creditworthiness of what that fund holds;
any use of derivatives by the fund; entry and exit charges; the
fund's size; and the experience of the fund's managers.
Australians today have a greater range of choice in this field
than ever before but, for the moment, it seems they're exercising
that choice with greater caution than was the case before the
financial crisis. And that's no bad thing. "It would be very
disappointing if we didn't learn from our mistakes," Coughlan
says.
What's an income fund?
You get a sense of the diversity of this style of investment by
looking at fund researcher Morningstar's classification of income
products. It considers them to fall into 10 different camps,
roughly along these lines:
Australian cash: Invest mainly in very liquid market securities
like bank deposits and bank bills. They usually mature in less than
12 months.
Australian cash enhanced: Similar to Australian cash but can
also have exposure to bonds, corporate debt and asset-backed
securities and may use derivatives. Usually have about a 12-month
duration.
Mortgage funds: Mainly invest in registered first mortgages
secured over Australian property but sometimes in fixed interest,
money market securities or cash.
Mortgage funds — aggressive: Like mortgage funds but may
invest 20 per cent or more in mezzanine debt, development and
construction loans, pre-developed land or specialty loans such as
to hotels and retirement villages.
Australian bonds: Invest in traditional Australian
fixed-interest securities such as government or Australian
corporate bonds with a maturity of more than one year.
Global bonds: Invest in foreign government and corporate debt
with a maturity of more than one year.
Global-Australian bonds: Combine global and Australian bonds,
with at least 25 per cent of the total in Australian.
Diversified credit funds: Invest in credit securities in
Australia and-or worldwide. This involves active selection to try
to get better returns than government bonds. Usually they invest in
securities rated BBB or above (the definition of investment grade)
but not always.
High yield: Invest in credit securities where the average credit
quality is below BBB or sub-investment grade (sometimes called
junk). Typically invest heavily in emerging market debt, junk
bonds, structured credit and unrated issues.
Multi-strategy income: Combine different sectors to improve
yield, which might include domestic and international government
bonds, corporate debt, private debt and hybrid securities.
Even this impressive list does not include several other styles
investors might consider as sources of income, such as
high-yielding equity funds or listed property funds.
Note: Fixed income or fixed interest? Bankers and investors in
most of the world use the term fixed income (even sometimes for
bond products where the income isn't actually fixed). In Australia,
the term fixed interest tends to be used instead. They mean the
same thing.
Income products and the financial crisis
Although income products are usually painted as defensive
investments that protect you in bad times, it's worth remembering
that bond-related products kicked off the sub-prime crisis, which
led to the global financial crisis.
Five years ago, it had become common for investors to put money
into products such as collateralised debt obligations (CDOs), which
packaged together dozens of debt instruments in order to make a
return, usually combining leverage to boost that return. "But the
leverage was not always appropriate and because you were investing
in assets that were similar, it didn't provide you with
diversification," says a portfolio manager at Russell Investments,
Kathy Cave. "They could go badly wrong and that's what
happened."
Usually, if something goes wrong in an asset, it doesn't affect
the rest of the market. "The recent experience was dramatically
different," says the director of fixed income at ING Investment
Management, Greg Michel (pictured). "The freezing of markets for
these assets was not a specific credit event but rather a
market-wide liquidity event, with many income-based assets being
impacted."
The problem spiralled as investors tried to pull out of funds
that were never intended to face sudden redemptions from so many
people simultaneously; it was in this environment that managers
such as Basis Capital had to suspend redemptions and in some cases
shut them down.
It wasn't just CDOs. Peter Dorrian at Pimco says investors had
moved their income allocation out of safe bonds and into things
such as mortgage funds, property trusts and fund-of-hedge funds. In
each asset class, something went wrong.
"In the case of mortgage funds it was for structural reasons,
where there was a mismatch between the ability to provide liquidity
and the underlying assets they invested in," he says. "In hedge
funds it was a similar problem: the liquidity of what the funds
were invested in, versus the weight of redemptions seeking to get
out. And while most property trusts survived the crisis, they are
engrossed in massive capital raisings, which do nothing positive
for investors other than reduce gearing levels."
The financial crisis also gave guaranteed funds a bad name, for
two reasons: in the worst cases, the bank that provided the
guarantee went under, rendering it useless; and in others, while
investors didn't lose their money, they found themselves locked
into an unproductive fund for up to seven years.
While there's still plenty of life in guaranteed products
(provided you trust the guarantor), there is still suspicion.
"We have seen a few products launched that have some kind of
guarantee attached to them," Cave says. "It's a different profile
— some of them are fixed terms and are not necessarily simple
investments. You are giving up the flexibility to get out of
products for a guarantee over a period of time."
Nevertheless, the general manager for retail at Australian Unity
Investments, Adam Coughlan, argues "there are still good products
out there that do what they're meant to do but have a fixed rate of
return".
Australian Unity offers a fixed-term product (called an income
note) secured on income from retirement villages. "Retirement
income is very stable," he says. "Something underpinned by real
property is a safer way of getting income."