What's new? ANZ followed in the footsteps of
its closest rival, National Australia Bank, last week to deliver a
full-year earnings result that would be the envy of many offshore
peers.
For the banks, it's all about "jaws". The word in this case
refers to the difference between the banks' revenue and cost
growth. We may not be talking about great whites but the jaws can
still do serious damage to a bank's valuation.
A significant factor in last year's banking-sector collapse was
the fear that higher funding costs and slower lending growth would
cause the jaws to narrow for a prolonged period. The evidence
suggests this is not the case. ANZ's revenue for the year expanded
17 per cent, while costs grew by just 12 per cent. Rather than
remaining locked, the jaws are opening and this can only be
positive for earnings.
ANZ's Global Markets divisions served as a major driver of the
revenue growth. Importantly, though, the core banking operation is
benefiting from improved pricing power. This is enabling ANZ and
the banks in general to charge higher rates of interest relative to
their own interest payments. In doing so, the banks are clawing
back earnings previously lost to non-bank lenders.
The outlook At the heart of the financial
crisis was underpricing of risk. For banks, this meant lending too
much and charging too little. Although the Australian banks proved
to be fairly conservative, they do not have an unblemished
record.
The extent of their loan loss provisioning is certainly
testament to this.
Loan losses in ANZ's case wiped more than $3 billion from its
latest annual earnings. ANZ unfortunately has the largest exposure
to the beleaguered New Zealand economy of any of the big four.
About half of the bank's 2009 loan loss growth came thanks to
that country and it will remain a headwind into next year. The good
news is the loan loss cycle appears to be peaking and next year's
result should show improvement.
Price Unlike the wider market, the banking
sector set its low in February. ANZ hit its low of $12.02 mid-month
before recovering through March. The stock then hovered at about
$16, before a rally in July in which its price more than double
from the low. One would not normally associate this kind of price
action with one of Australia's largest businesses. But then, this
has clearly been no ordinary market.
Worth buying? Although management continues to
be a cautiously optimistic, the outlook for the banks has improved
since last year. So too has their stockmarket valuation. As such,
we will wait for more heat to come out of the sector before
stepping back in. When we do again look at buying banks, ANZ will
be high on our list. Chief executive Mike Smith has established a
firm foundation for growth through his bottom-of-the-market
acquisitions. ANZ's Asian growth strategy will serve to enhance the
benefit of a stronger competitive position in Australia in the
years ahead.
Colin Whitehead is an analyst at Fat Prophets Sharemarket
Research.