How strange it is to be talking about a resources boom when
we've just seen off a recession.
Oh, you weren't? Well the fact is we're staring at the mother of
all resource booms in the next 12 to 18 months.
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics
(ABARE) dutifully catalogues every proposed mining and energy
project and its latest tally is an investment spending bonanza of
$80 billion.
Another 247 projects costing $280 billion are on the drawing
board, according to the chairman at BHP Billiton, Don Argus.
Some would be close to getting the go-ahead, too, such as
Woodside Petroleum's $7 billion Sunrise project in the Timor
Sea.
But let's start with what we definitely have, or are about to
have.
The accompanying map is dotted with projects ABARE says are
"committed or under construction" – the bigger the dot the
more that's being spent.
Most come on stream over the next two years and their sizes are
ahead of anything we've had before.
Not that you want to get carried away. ABARE's calculation was
based on the exchange rate in April, for example, and it has since
soared.
But then it excludes the massive Gorgon liquefied natural gas
(LNG) project, which was only finalised in mid-September.
Gorgon is gigantic. It's Australia's biggest resources project
and construction commences soon.
This is a joint venture between the giant Chevron, a big US
petrol retailer and energy producer, which has a half interest,
while the other two quarter shares are divvied up between
ExxonMobil and Shell.
Multibillion-dollar contracts stretching out to 2039 have
already been signed with China, Japan and South Korea. Gorgon
should start producing in mid-2014.
The Gorgon field is part of the North West Shelf and will have a
processing plant at Barrow Island, where 21 rare species of animals
have been minding their own business for aeons but can expect their
15 minutes of fame any day.
Lots of figures have been bandied around, all disputed, about
how much Gorgon will be worth but we do know construction has been
estimated at $20 billion, so you can add that to the list.
The point is this resources boom will be huge and, so long as
commodity prices hold up, the real question is whether we'll be
able to handle all that prosperity.
As it is, there are already acute shortages of labour in some
areas and the Business Council of Australia has warned of
bottlenecks at some ports and inadequate freight
infrastructure.
Sadly, our history of handling resources booms hasn't been much
to write home about but this will be the first one under a floating
dollar, independent Reserve Bank and a decentralised labour
market.
For a resources boom to take off, demand must run ahead of
supply.
We should be safe on that score. One thing you can thank the
global financial crisis for is that it stopped more supply coming
online.
If anything it reduced it by forcing many marginal mines to shut
down.
And since BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto have most of the world's
iron ore and nickel deposits sewn up between them, you needn't
worry about a looming supply threat there.
This time the resource boom is mostly a dash for gas.
As well as the Gorgon project and the expansion of the North
West Shelf producing more LNG from under the sea, and Woodside
fast-tracking its nearby $12 billion Pluto project, there will be
gas coming from Queensland's coal.
Gladstone is a hot gas spot with some $50 billion of coal-seam
methane projects being talked about.
The coal deposits in the region are known to hold copious
amounts of gas; the problem has always been drilling it
economically.
Fortunately Australia is, well, a natural, for exporting LNG to
Asia thanks to our location and reliability.
Although we don't have the upper hand in LNG production –
unlike for iron ore, nickel bauxite and uranium – the
competition isn't all that flash, as the chief executive of
Woodside Petroleum, Don Voelte, told
The Australian Financial Review somewhat colourfully the other
day:
"You've got Russia, which is technically challenged. You've got
Iran, which is politically challenged. You've got Nigeria, which is
civil disobedience-challenged. You've got Qatar, which is
self-imposed moratorium-challenged and you've got Malaysia, which
is out of gas, basically, and Indonesia, which is out of gas."
He didn't mention the other supplier, Iraq, but that's probably
just as well.
And while there might be some doubt about the long-term
viability of coal, considered the super-villain of carbon
emissions, LNG is clean and green.
The one dampener is that gas prices in the past few weeks have
been trailing the rise in crude oil, the result of a record volume
being held in storage in the US.
One thing's for sure: the capital that will be flowing into
Australia to build these projects is going to drive up the value of
the dollar and widen our current account deficit.
This will create jobs but exacerbate our skilled-labour
shortage.
And it'll probably mean interest rates will go a lot higher than
you may be counting on.
As will taxes. We've seen the last tax cut for a long time.
Sounds a bit grim, doesn't it? Maybe a recession might not have
been such a bad idea after all?
Well I may have overlooked a couple of things, such as booming
share and property prices from that boost to national income, for
example.
Or cheaper imports.
And remember they're going to be desperate out there for skilled
labour. Who needs a sea change when you can have a sand change?
There's already an acute shortage of chemical and petroleum
engineers and construction workers are in short supply.
Judging by the complaints from industry, tradesmen, mining
engineers, mechanical and electrical technicians, geologists and
metallurgists are also in demand.
Since the North West Shelf and Gladstone will be after the same
people, just imagine how much they'll be willing to pay.
Sharing the spoils
The significant stocks in the North West Shelf are:
Woodside Petroleum The gateway to the North West Shelf venture,
it is one of six partners and operates the facilities. It also owns
the $12 billion Pluto gas field outright. It is 34 per cent owned
by Shell Australia. The stock is an energy giant with strong cash
flow. It has a reasonable debt level and pays a dividend, although
with a price-earnings ratio of 20, it's getting pricey.
BHP Billiton As the only other ASX-listed member of the
consortium, its virtues speak for themselves. This is the world's
biggest diversified mining house and the only one with a petroleum
division. It posted record iron ore production in the September
quarter and about one-third of its contracts will be renegotiated
quarterly, indexed or at spot prices. It is a low-cost producer
with little debt and most operations in politically safe countries.
It's an essential stock for any portfolio.
Santos The third-largest oil and gas producer, supplying more
than one-fifth of eastern Australia's natural gas, with an interest
in the nearby Carnarvon basin, is best known for its Cooper basin
project in South Australia. It is building the world's first
large-scale commercial project to convert coal-seam gas to LNG at
Gladstone in Queensland. This is at the "front-end engineering and
design phase", Santos says. It's also active in Papua New Guinea,
South-East Asia and North Africa. If you ignore BHP's thwarted bid
for Rio Tinto, it's the only major resource stock that's a
potential takeover target.
All right, there's one little problem. For all these cases you'd
be banking on commodity prices rising once the global recession is
over. But what if they don't? Doesn't matter for stocks that
service the big mining companies. All they need is the big miners
to spend. Here's some:
WorleyParsons The biggest listed engineer is well recognised
globally in oil and gas projects thanks to the size of its
operations in the US. It has a strong cash flow, low debt and
posted a record profit in the year to June. Although its speciality
is designing and installing offshore rigs, pipelines and
refineries, its expertise extends to infrastructure and power
generation. It shrugged off the global recession with successive
profit increases and even pays a dividend. And telling the big
resource companies how to spend their money is much better than
spending it yourself.
Mermaid Marine Australia and Neptune Marine This duo is like
WorleyParsons only in wetsuits. Both have nearly doubled in price
in the past six months. Mermaid supplies tugs and barge operations
and Neptune has patented technology for welding underwater. Both
install and service subterranean pipelines and offshore oil and gas
rigs. Mermaid is bigger and more expensive with a P/E ratio of 17.4
and pays a dividend. Neptune trades on a P/E of 11.7. It doesn't
pay a dividend but doesn't have any debt, either.
Monadelphous Group "It has a track record of supplying the
leading clients in its fields, particularly iron ore, but has
recently expanded into oil and gas infrastructure and plant,
creating very strong and steady growth in revenues, earnings and
high franked dividends, backed by a traditional net cash position,"
says Intersuisse analyst Peter Russell.
Ausdrill, Boart Longyear, Imdex and Swick Mining Services These
supply drills and logistics and all have international markets. The
biggest by size and market share is Boart Longyear but it also has
the most debt. The cheapest, based on its P/E ratio of just 7.9, is
Ausdrill, which is also most favoured by brokers. Swick is the
dearest and the only one not to pay a dividend. Imdex has the
lowest debt- equity ratio.