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The dash for gas

David Potts | November 4 2009 | The Sydney Morning Herald & The Age (subscribe)

How strange it is to be talking about a resources boom when we've just seen off a recession.

Oh, you weren't? Well the fact is we're staring at the mother of all resource booms in the next 12 to 18 months.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) dutifully catalogues every proposed mining and energy project and its latest tally is an investment spending bonanza of $80 billion.

Another 247 projects costing $280 billion are on the drawing board, according to the chairman at BHP Billiton, Don Argus.

Some would be close to getting the go-ahead, too, such as Woodside Petroleum's $7 billion Sunrise project in the Timor Sea.

But let's start with what we definitely have, or are about to have.

The accompanying map is dotted with projects ABARE says are "committed or under construction" – the bigger the dot the more that's being spent.

Most come on stream over the next two years and their sizes are ahead of anything we've had before.

Not that you want to get carried away. ABARE's calculation was based on the exchange rate in April, for example, and it has since soared.

But then it excludes the massive Gorgon liquefied natural gas (LNG) project, which was only finalised in mid-September.

Gorgon is gigantic. It's Australia's biggest resources project and construction commences soon.

This is a joint venture between the giant Chevron, a big US petrol retailer and energy producer, which has a half interest, while the other two quarter shares are divvied up between ExxonMobil and Shell.

Multibillion-dollar contracts stretching out to 2039 have already been signed with China, Japan and South Korea. Gorgon should start producing in mid-2014.

The Gorgon field is part of the North West Shelf and will have a processing plant at Barrow Island, where 21 rare species of animals have been minding their own business for aeons but can expect their 15 minutes of fame any day.

Lots of figures have been bandied around, all disputed, about how much Gorgon will be worth but we do know construction has been estimated at $20 billion, so you can add that to the list.

The point is this resources boom will be huge and, so long as commodity prices hold up, the real question is whether we'll be able to handle all that prosperity.

As it is, there are already acute shortages of labour in some areas and the Business Council of Australia has warned of bottlenecks at some ports and inadequate freight infrastructure.

Sadly, our history of handling resources booms hasn't been much to write home about but this will be the first one under a floating dollar, independent Reserve Bank and a decentralised labour market.

For a resources boom to take off, demand must run ahead of supply.

We should be safe on that score. One thing you can thank the global financial crisis for is that it stopped more supply coming online.

If anything it reduced it by forcing many marginal mines to shut down.

And since BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto have most of the world's iron ore and nickel deposits sewn up between them, you needn't worry about a looming supply threat there.

This time the resource boom is mostly a dash for gas.

As well as the Gorgon project and the expansion of the North West Shelf producing more LNG from under the sea, and Woodside fast-tracking its nearby $12 billion Pluto project, there will be gas coming from Queensland's coal.

Gladstone is a hot gas spot with some $50 billion of coal-seam methane projects being talked about.

The coal deposits in the region are known to hold copious amounts of gas; the problem has always been drilling it economically.

Fortunately Australia is, well, a natural, for exporting LNG to Asia thanks to our location and reliability.

Although we don't have the upper hand in LNG production – unlike for iron ore, nickel bauxite and uranium – the competition isn't all that flash, as the chief executive of Woodside Petroleum, Don Voelte, told

The Australian Financial Review somewhat colourfully the other day:

"You've got Russia, which is technically challenged. You've got Iran, which is politically challenged. You've got Nigeria, which is civil disobedience-challenged. You've got Qatar, which is self-imposed moratorium-challenged and you've got Malaysia, which is out of gas, basically, and Indonesia, which is out of gas."

He didn't mention the other supplier, Iraq, but that's probably just as well.

And while there might be some doubt about the long-term viability of coal, considered the super-villain of carbon emissions, LNG is clean and green.

The one dampener is that gas prices in the past few weeks have been trailing the rise in crude oil, the result of a record volume being held in storage in the US.

One thing's for sure: the capital that will be flowing into Australia to build these projects is going to drive up the value of the dollar and widen our current account deficit.

This will create jobs but exacerbate our skilled-labour shortage.

And it'll probably mean interest rates will go a lot higher than you may be counting on.

As will taxes. We've seen the last tax cut for a long time.

Sounds a bit grim, doesn't it? Maybe a recession might not have been such a bad idea after all?

Well I may have overlooked a couple of things, such as booming share and property prices from that boost to national income, for example.

Or cheaper imports.

And remember they're going to be desperate out there for skilled labour. Who needs a sea change when you can have a sand change?

There's already an acute shortage of chemical and petroleum engineers and construction workers are in short supply.

Judging by the complaints from industry, tradesmen, mining engineers, mechanical and electrical technicians, geologists and metallurgists are also in demand.

Since the North West Shelf and Gladstone will be after the same people, just imagine how much they'll be willing to pay.

Sharing the spoils

The significant stocks in the North West Shelf are:

Woodside Petroleum The gateway to the North West Shelf venture, it is one of six partners and operates the facilities. It also owns the $12 billion Pluto gas field outright. It is 34 per cent owned by Shell Australia. The stock is an energy giant with strong cash flow. It has a reasonable debt level and pays a dividend, although with a price-earnings ratio of 20, it's getting pricey.

BHP Billiton As the only other ASX-listed member of the consortium, its virtues speak for themselves. This is the world's biggest diversified mining house and the only one with a petroleum division. It posted record iron ore production in the September quarter and about one-third of its contracts will be renegotiated quarterly, indexed or at spot prices. It is a low-cost producer with little debt and most operations in politically safe countries. It's an essential stock for any portfolio.

Santos The third-largest oil and gas producer, supplying more than one-fifth of eastern Australia's natural gas, with an interest in the nearby Carnarvon basin, is best known for its Cooper basin project in South Australia. It is building the world's first large-scale commercial project to convert coal-seam gas to LNG at Gladstone in Queensland. This is at the "front-end engineering and design phase", Santos says. It's also active in Papua New Guinea, South-East Asia and North Africa. If you ignore BHP's thwarted bid for Rio Tinto, it's the only major resource stock that's a potential takeover target.

All right, there's one little problem. For all these cases you'd be banking on commodity prices rising once the global recession is over. But what if they don't? Doesn't matter for stocks that service the big mining companies. All they need is the big miners to spend. Here's some:

WorleyParsons The biggest listed engineer is well recognised globally in oil and gas projects thanks to the size of its operations in the US. It has a strong cash flow, low debt and posted a record profit in the year to June. Although its speciality is designing and installing offshore rigs, pipelines and refineries, its expertise extends to infrastructure and power generation. It shrugged off the global recession with successive profit increases and even pays a dividend. And telling the big resource companies how to spend their money is much better than spending it yourself.

Mermaid Marine Australia and Neptune Marine This duo is like WorleyParsons only in wetsuits. Both have nearly doubled in price in the past six months. Mermaid supplies tugs and barge operations and Neptune has patented technology for welding underwater. Both install and service subterranean pipelines and offshore oil and gas rigs. Mermaid is bigger and more expensive with a P/E ratio of 17.4 and pays a dividend. Neptune trades on a P/E of 11.7. It doesn't pay a dividend but doesn't have any debt, either.

Monadelphous Group "It has a track record of supplying the leading clients in its fields, particularly iron ore, but has recently expanded into oil and gas infrastructure and plant, creating very strong and steady growth in revenues, earnings and high franked dividends, backed by a traditional net cash position," says Intersuisse analyst Peter Russell.

Ausdrill, Boart Longyear, Imdex and Swick Mining Services These supply drills and logistics and all have international markets. The biggest by size and market share is Boart Longyear but it also has the most debt. The cheapest, based on its P/E ratio of just 7.9, is Ausdrill, which is also most favoured by brokers. Swick is the dearest and the only one not to pay a dividend. Imdex has the lowest debt- equity ratio.

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