Retirement starts to loom large for most people when they turn
50. Then there's the "oh my god" moment; the realisation that they
need to save much more if they are to enjoy a comfortable
retirement.
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission has started
to clear the way for superannuation funds to provide members with
regular estimates of their likely balance upon retirement.
For a "comfortable" retirement, the Westpac-ASFA Retirement
Standard says an annual income of just over $50,000 is needed. But
how much capital is needed to support that?
A recently retired engineer took me to task for a story
published in Money on October 14 headed "Don't leave it too late",
in which I said at least $500,000 was needed for a home-owning
couple who intended to retire at age 65 and fund 20 years of
retirement at $50,000 a year. That sum assumed the retirees had no
other assets and the house would be the extent of the children's
inheritance.
But the retired engineer said the lump sum needed was more like
$700,000. He made the (reasonable) assumptions of a 7 per cent
return and inflation of 3 per cent. However, he neglected to allow
for the age pension. During the 20-year retirement period, our
retirees would run down their capital and would be able to pick up
more of the age pension.
I asked financial planner Greg Cook, of Eureka Financial Group,
for his opinion. He said about $550,000 was needed and that was
taking into account the fact the couple would receive a combined
part-age pension, which would rise as the capital ran down.
The capital required was less than the engineer's estimate
because the lump sum had to fund the retirement income required,
less the income from the part-age pension.
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission's FIDO
retirement planner, which is the best calculator available
publicly, provides the same answer at fido.gov.au.
Cook says he would advise people to save more than this because
retirees do not want to leave themselves too dependent on the age
pension and at the whim of changes to social security.
Higher-income earners are likely to have higher expectations of
their retirement. Most planners say retirement income should be at
least 60 per cent of pre-retirement income.
Larger lump sums can be invested more conservatively, with less
exposure to market downturns. To generate the same retirement
income, smaller lump sums have to be invested more
aggressively.
Cook points out that usually at least one member of a couple
comes into an inheritance. And the couple could eventually move to
a smaller, cheaper house, which they may want to do anyway if the
upkeep becomes too much for them.
There are further considerations, too. Firstly, the
"comfortable" $50,000-a-year retirement, as defined by
Westpac-ASFA, would strike many readers as being fairly basic. It
includes private health insurance, a reasonable car, domestic
holidays and an overseas trip every five years. There's not much in
the budget for cultural activities outside visits to the cinema,
extended overseas travel or for helping the children out
financially. Anyone who can't work to the age of 65, for whatever
reason, would want to save more.
Then there's the risk of outliving retirement savings. Retirees
with higher socio-economic status generally live longer than
average. Nick Callil of superannuation consultant Watson Wyatt
estimated recently there was a 50 per cent chance that one of a
pair of 65-year-old self-funded retirees would live to 90.
Longevity improvements mean not only living longer but also in
better health, meaning the length of active retirement will be
extended.
Many assumptions have to be made in arriving at a figure for
retirement and people's individual circumstances differ.
For a really comfortable retirement, the figure to aim for is
probably closer to $700,000 for most people on middling or a bit
better than middling incomes. To achieve a lump sum of that size,
the 9 per cent compulsory super will not be enough; salary
sacrificing into super should begin earlier rather than later.