Superannuation isn't just good for your personal retirement
wellbeing; it's also good for the economy as a whole. Way back when
former prime minister Paul Keating was introducing the
superannuation guarantee in 1992, he envisaged a system that would
also be able to support the economy through the provision of a pool
of money that could be used, via the investment decisions of super
funds and funds managers, for "nation building".
Superannuation is forced saving in every sense of the word. You
don't have a say in it and your employer has to pay it by law. You
could argue that your take-home salary, and perhaps the amount you
can put aside for other types of investment, is smaller as a result
but a bigger bottom line at retirement should be enough
compensation.
But that's not the only benefit. There is also a big picture
outcome as well. The impact this form of forced savings has on the
economy could mean we're all better off by as much as $928 per head
in economic growth.
How? We've already established that superannuation is forced
savings. It turns out that that alone could have increased our
level of national savings by between 1.5 per cent to 2 per cent of
gross domestic product (GDP).
More than 80 per cent of superannuation money is invested
locally and Allen Consulting, in a report prepared for the
Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia (ASFA), estimates
investment via superannuation funds added an additional $14
billion, or 4.5 per cent, to overall investment of $312 billion in
the last financial year.
What's that got to do with anything? Stick with me because there
are a few more numbers in this yet.
Because of that investment, capital stocks have grown much
faster since 1991 when compulsory superannuation was introduced.
Increased capital stocks have boosted GDP by an estimated 1.8 per
cent or $20 billion – and that becomes our $928 per head or
$2400 per household bonus.
See the graph for the projected impact on GDP of super for the
next 10 years. Without superannuation, GDP in 2020 would be just
$1.626 trillion or 3.2 per cent less than an estimated $1.679
trillion with it.
Some of the 80 per cent of superannuation monies invested
locally is invested in our sharemarket. According to Allen
Consulting estimates, that has about 23 per cent of the Australian
share market held by superannuation funds. With a domestic market
capitalisation of $1.09 trillion at June 30, that works out at
$250.7 billion. It doesn't mean that without super funds the market
would be that much smaller – but there's a fair chance if it
was left up to us, we'd be spending these monies on consumer goods
rather than saving for our 70s (and 80s and 90s).
In the shorter term, superannuation funds could provide some
support for the current rally. Average cash allocations in funds'
balanced options increased by nearly 2 per cent over the past two
years as funds moved out of volatile shares. Cash allocations were
4.67 per cent in the third quarter of 2007 but sitting at 6.37 per
cent at the end of last financial year.
Now things are looking up, funds are probably going to move
closer to 2007 levels, which means there's a fair amount of cash
sitting on the sidelines waiting to be reinvested. More than $11.7
billion in fact – and enough, perhaps, to provide the market
with a very merry Christmas.