Thank goodness the Reserve Bank has finally lifted interest
rates. The way it was going on about emergencies it was beginning
to look like the boy who cried wolf.
But where exactly is the wolf? That's the funny thing –
its statement last week was almost dove-ish.
Inflation was barely mentioned and since things hadn't become
nearly as bad as it had feared, it simply decided it could loosen
up. Or I should say tighten up.
That's another thing. Maybe I better stop reading Dan Brown
novels but there's a code concealed somewhere in these words of
"gradually lessening the stimulus".
Did you spot it? Well this would put its intended destination
somewhere this side of neutral, which is considered to be about 5
per cent. Or, in other words, a mortgage rate of about 8 per
cent.
Still missed it? Try this. Normally it would have stuck with its
conventional wording of "gradually tightening", except this would
have taken it past neutral into top gear.
Then we'd be talking double-digit mortgage rates. But it's
not.
Which brings me back to why it chose now to lift rates. Remember
interest-rate rises are just like cockroaches – there's never
just one of them.
Why indeed. The best Wayne Swan could suggest was that "50-year
lows can't last forever". But they could last another month or two,
surely.
To use a Swanism, we're not out of the woods yet. The September
quarter GDP will be at best flat and probably shrank slightly.
Although China is no doubt booming – when Beijing tells
its banks to lend they don't even have to ask how much – the
US, Britain and Japan are looking little better than they did three
months ago and that wasn't crash hot.
But back to the cockroach count. While rates on mortgages will
go on rising, unfortunately the same can't be said for savings.
Since the banks won't dare go beyond the Reserve Bank's moves
– they owe the Government big time, after all – and
their funding costs have gone up, somebody has to be squeezed.
They've already gone down the so-called staff rationalisation
route, kicked up small business lending rates and reached
saturation point on fees.
So you guessed it. That just leaves savers who need a global
financial crisis bubbling along for a lot longer than the Reserve
predicts.
Only if the banks are elbowed out of borrowing offshore again
will they have to pay more for deposits.
But the opposite seems to be happening.
Only a month ago Rabobank was offering 7 per cent for five
years. No more – it's been sliced by 0.5 per cent. Nor have
increases made by the other banks broken new ground.
This raises something of a quandary. Normally you don't go long
while rates are rising. It's better to wait for more later as well
as avoid a potential capital loss on a fixed-interest security.
But if you can grab a decent blackboard special, it could be
better to settle for a term rate and get that for longer.
At least cash management rates should rise, since they're
indirectly tied to the official rate.
But check what you're getting – you might be shocked to
learn it's less than 2 per cent. You'll get twice that from an
online banking account.