To everything there is a season, says the Bible, and the stockmarket is often no exception. Many astute investors have profited from the market's "seasons" tax-loss selling and subsequent market weakness in June, a rally to mark the new financial year in July, weakness in October, the Christmas rally and more.

But the market turmoil of the past 20 months has upset these neat assumptions. The Christmas seasons in 2007 and 2008 were not at all merry.

And anyone who this year followed the maxim "sell in May and go away" would have missed part of an amazing rally that by mid-June had seen the market up almost 30 per cent from its March low.

Now just a week remains before the start of a new financial year. And with July traditionally a strong month for shares, it raises questions of whether year-end tax-loss selling is still an issue and, more importantly, whether we can expect the powerful rally that began in March to continue its upward trajectory.

It also raises questions of whether these seasonal indicators really remain relevant. For example, why should markets so often fall in October, sometimes disastrously, as occurred in the crashes of 1929, 1987 and 1997?

Alan Hull is a fund manager, best-selling author and publisher of the investor website alanhull.com. "Why is October so often weak?" he asks. "Because we think it is. It is purely psychological. It is purely expectation.

"Humans drive markets, which are a reflection of our emotions, our psyche and also, of course, of hard facts. But sentiment and our psyche play such a large part. People anticipate an October low, so ... it is just a self-fulfilling prophecy."

The head of equity research at Morningstar Australasia, Peter Warnes, believes the old market maxims are becoming less relevant. "Traditionally July was a good month because of events like new superannuation funds coming into the market," he says. "This would run into August and then ease back in September and October, before another run-up in late November and a Christmas rally. Then you might get a strong January again, with new super funds coming in.

"But a lot of this does not tend to happen any more, in part because the flows of super money are much more evenly spread. So a lot of this historic data, which says what the market might do in particular months, is now a bit old hat."

Most investors looking to crystallise losses this year will probably have already sold their shares.

In any case, one of the main reasons for taking a loss on shares is to offset a profit, for tax purposes, and it has not been easy to make a profit of late.

In addition, the tax authorities have declared they will not look favourably on investors selling shares at the end of the financial year in order to crystallise a loss only to buy them back in the new year.

Thus, by mid-June the market was not showing signs of weakness but, rather, seemed to be continuing the rally that began in March.

"I would have thought basically it [tax-loss selling] should have been all done by now," Warnes says. "But there may be a little of it still around. Look at the beaten-down sectors infrastructure in particular and property trusts. There may well be some pressure there."

The real question for investors now is what will July bring rally or retreat?

"Moving into June 30, a lot of the institutions and fund managers will probably not be looking to sell but rather will wish to hold on to their recent gains," says the senior equity strategist at Lonsec, Bill Keenan.

"But then they will be thinking about repositioning in July and August. So you might get weakness then."

In fact, he sees a variety of reasons why the market could be weak after July. "Some people are forecasting a V-shaped recovery but personally I am sceptical of this," he says. "I am looking more for a range-trading market. I am looking for the market to hit the top of a range at some point and then struggle, simply because of the number of capital raisings going on, which is leading to earnings per share dilution.

"These capital raisings are a big speed bump to get over, unless we get a V-shaped earnings recovery, which I think is unlikely. I think the earnings recovery is more likely to be pretty flat-to-negative and so, coupled with the earnings per share dilution, you are probably looking at a disappointing couple of years for the equity market."

He warns the August results could be a shock to investors, because of the large number of recent capital raisings.

"Even if profits are generally flat, the earnings per share figures for some companies could still be down 10 per cent to 20 per cent because of all the new shares on issue. There is a big reality check coming up for the market."

Adds Hull: "In a fairly subdued and quiet market we would see the fund managers buying up in July. So usually the start of July would see a bit of a pop to the upside. But these are weak forces. I think in the current climate they are not major issues. Much larger forces are at work. In the current market, anything is possible.

"I think at the end of the day we are going to follow the US. So really, we are slaves to the offshore markets. If the US tanks, we tank. If the US runs, we run. The other influence that is slowly getting a foothold is Asia and commodity markets.

"Seasonal indicators based on investor sentiment may work in a more subdued market environment but I think trading on those sorts of things in the current climate is not really the go. You don't come out of a bear market on the back of sentiment."