Australia may or may not be in recession - there won't be
official word on that for a while yet - but there's no doubt the
year ahead will be one of the most difficult many people have faced
in nearly two decades.
Whether you're a young professional with a five-figure credit
card balance, a home buyer no longer sure your job is secure or a
retiree whose private pension fund is going backwards, it's time to
clean up your finances.
Even if you're cashed up and secure, the very different economy
this year means your financial arrangements may need dusting off
too.
JPMorgan chief economist Stephen Walters says that after a
decade running up debt, the party is over and many Australians will
start the new year contemplating the messy state of their personal
balance sheets.
"We're now entering a period where the desire will be to cut
debt," he says. "For some, this will be forced upon them by job
losses."
Walters suspects Australia's economy may prove to be in
recession. He believes it contracted in the last three months of
2008 and will continue to go backwards in the first three months of
this year - adding up to two consecutive quarters of negative
growth, the technical definition of recession.
We won't know whether he's right until June, when national
accounts data for the March quarter is released, but Walters says
even if we avoid a recession it will still feel like one.
He says job losses are likely to extend from the financial
sector into retailing, manufacturing and construction and house
prices may have further to fall.
Yes, interest rates are lower and our mortgages less burdensome,
he says, but we should still avoid the temptation to "leverage up"
and instead ask ourselves questions such as "how secure is my job?"
and "could I service my debts if the worst happened?"
The good news is Walters doesn't think any recession will be as
long or as deep as the recession of the early 1990s - two quarters
may be the extent of it. And others point out that low interest
rates, cheaper petrol and falling consumer prices actually present
an opportunity to get your house in order.
"We've got this extra cash and as families and as individuals we
should be applying that in the right way to really get ahead," says
Lisa Montgomery, head of consumer advocacy at RESI Mortgage
Corporation.
"The saving people are making on their mortgages is in the
vicinity of $500 to $700 a month. That's where the opportunity
is.
"The thing people can do in the first couple of months of 2009
is to say: 'I'm going to clean my house financially.' "
Instead of spending disposable income it's time to scour away
the grime and polish our finances - paying off debts, putting some
aside and investing wisely to build long-term wealth.
Scrub up
Your finances may be in such a state that you can't even see
what's beneath the dirt. So the first step is a budget.
You may know how much you earn but do you know how much you
spend - and on what? Do your expenses match your income or do you
have a deficit?
Look at your bank and credit card statements to see what they
can tell you, accountants' body CPA Australia says on its website
(cpaaustralia.com.au).
Financial services firm Superwoman Money is putting a money
"calorie counter" on superwoman.com.au this year to help you keep
track of spending.
"Work out how much you spend on coffees, even, and by the time
you add them all up it's a huge amount," says general manager Sue
Warren.
She says to identify where you can save cash, set some short-
and long-term goals for that money and monitor your budget to
ensure you're on track.
Be realistic when preparing your budget, she adds. If your
"diet" is too strict, you'll just break out and binge.
Financial advisers say your budget should include savings for
unexpected expenses or the proverbial rainy day.
One suggestion is to set aside 10 per cent of your income so you
can build up a kitty that could sustain you for at least six months
but preferably for up to two years.
This could take the form of cash savings in a high-yield account
or money that eats away at the mortgage while it's in an offset
account or available as redraw.
Eliminate debt
If your credit cards are out of hand, now's the time to put some
elbow grease into getting the balance down.
You should ultimately aim to pay off your card in full each
month, because you're now using it for convenience and not to fund
spending you can't actually afford. Even better, switch to a debit
card.
Credit card rates haven't fallen anywhere near as much as the
official interest rate cuts, Montgomery says, so apply the savings
you're making elsewhere to reduce this form of debt.
With credit card rates still as high as 20.5 per cent in some
cases but mortgage rates at 6 per cent to 7 per cent, there's a
strong case for pooling all your debt in one place - your
mortgage.
"There could never be a better time to consolidate," Montgomery
says. "But you have to be careful. If you're just going to
consolidate debt and then take the mortgage back over 30 years and
pay the minimum, forget it - you'll pay more over the longer
term."
The way to make consolidation work is to keep paying the amount
you were when the card debt was accruing interest at a higher rate,
even though it's now on a lower rate in the mortgage.
And make sure you cut up your credit cards or you'll simply end
up with a bigger mortgage plus credit card debt.
Dust off the mortgage
With mortgage rates down about 3 percentage points in the past
six months and economists expecting a further 1 percentage point to
1.5 percentage point cut from the RBA, it's time to run your finger
over your home loan to make sure it hasn't been gathering dust.
The cuts to the official cash rate haven't been matched point
for point by bank and non-bank lenders. If your lender passed on
less than its rivals, there's a better deal out there.
However, Montgomery says borrowers need to be on the lookout for
wolves in sheep's clothing. A loan may have an attractive
advertised rate - as low as 3.99 per cent in some cases - but could
revert to an above-average rate after a honeymoon period. In
addition, there may be a hefty application fee or onerous exit or
"deferred establishment" fee if you want to pay the loan out
early.
Some people may be considering switching to a fixed-rate loan at
these low rates but with further rate cuts possible, now may not be
the time to lock in - unless you need the certainty.
Even if you're happy with your existing lender, take the
opportunity to clean up by making extra payments.
Mortgage specialist Resi had a look at what would happen if a
borrower maintained the repayments that were being made on a
$300,000, 30-year mortgage when interest rates were at their peak
in August last year.
The average variable rate was 9.6 per cent and the monthly
repayment was $2544. By December the average rate had dropped to
6.8 per cent and the required repayment to $1960, a saving of $584.
Assuming there were no further changes, if the borrower kept paying
$2544 the saving over the life of the loan would be $207,500 and it
would be paid off 13 years and eight months early.
Buff up your investments
It's this sort of room to move that is the silver lining amid
the bear sharemarket and economic slowdown, says John Dani of IPAC
Securities.
"People who are younger and building wealth are in the fortunate
situation where, if anything, they should be embracing current,
depreciated sharemarket prices," Dani says.
"They should get a handle on how much they can realistically set
aside each month and contribute into super, or into a managed fund,
with the point of view that it doesn't matter where the markets are
in 20 days or 20 weeks or even 20 months - it's where markets will
be in 20 years' time that will be the real big opportunity for
them."
People nearing retirement, on the other hand, will have
experienced dramatic falls in their super balances and should be
talking to their advisers about how this affects their plans.
The sharemarket slump makes transition-to-retirement pensions -
the sort where you can keep working but draw a tax-effective
pension - even more compelling for those aged 55-plus, Dani says.
This is because of the tax treatment of pension money.
"When the investment recovery inevitably does occur, that
recovery within super, within the accumulation phase, will be
subject to capital gains tax," he explains. "However, if you were
to transfer your super into a non-commutable allocated pension, the
recovery happens in an environment that's tax-free."
And now might be as good a time as any to transfer shares to a
spouse or partner on a lower marginal tax rate. That may mean
crystallising a loss or having to pay CGT, he says, "but when these
shares do recover they're better to recover in the name of the
lower-tax-paying partner".
People already in retirement, who face the greatest stress and
uncertainty amid falling markets, should avoid the temptation to
switch everything into cash, Dani says. The worst thing this group
could do would be to withdraw from the market, take the losses and
then miss out on the inevitable recovery, he says.
At most, people who don't have a sufficient buffer of cash
investments should switch to cash just the amount they need to
sustain them for a couple of years.
And don't forget that falling asset values may mean you're now
eligible for a part or full age pension and the seniors'
concessions that go with that.
Centrelink regularly revalues the assets of people already on
its books and adjusts pensions accordingly but if you're not in the
system you'll need to make an application.
Too elastic with the plastic
Cash is king for Amanda Bennetts in the new year.
"My partner and I have gone into living off cash - credit cards
are only to be used for the business," says Bennetts, who sells
footwear from her Ravishing Wide Calf Boots website
(www.widecalfboots.com.au).
"We're cooking most of our meals and cutting back our phone and
Foxtel [pay television] packages.
"We've also had discussions about the financially bad choices
we've made over the last 12 months. We've worked out some of our
spending habits and we're taking action to change them."
Bennetts says she found she was getting into increasing debt
with credit cards, partly because she always came home with more
than she set out to buy.
"If I went into the store to buy a top, say, I would come out
with two tops and matching pants, making a $30 purchase into a $150
one," she says
"I did this with clothes, whitegoods and when we bought a van I
spent an extra $500 on extras like seat covers, GPS, matting -
things we couldn't afford and didn't need.
"So my new year's resolution is to only buy one item when I go
to the shopping centre."
She says that's much easier to do when it's actual cash you're
handing over rather than a piece of plastic.
The tool kit
There are many aids, including our very own moneymanager.com.au,
that can help you improve your financial situation:
* Prepare a budget using the planner available at the Federal
Government's Understanding Money website at
understandingmoney.gov.au/Content/Consumer/Tools/Planner.
* Plan goals for the year and work out how much you need to save
to achieve them at
understandingmoney.gov.au/Tools/Consumer/Calculators/Savings.
* Pay more than the minimum on your credit cards and see the
interest you can save at
infochoice.com.au/loans/home-loan/credit-card-calculator.aspx.
* Make extra repayments on your mortgage and see the results at
mortgagechoice.com.au/calculators/extra-repayments-calculator.aspx.
* Compare debt consolidation with paying more off your existing
loans at
fido.gov.au/fido/fido.nsf/byheadline/Multi-loan+calculator?
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* Check the best rates on home loans, personal loans, credit
cards, insurance and bank accounts at infochoice.com.au and
canstar.com.au.
* Find a better deal on your mobile phone at
phonechoice.com.au.
* Do the sums on a transition-to-retirement pension at
clearview.com.au/ttr/retiresooner.
* Could you be eligible for the age pension? The Centrelink
asset and income tests are explained at
centrelink.gov.au/internet/internet.nsf/payments/age-pension.htm.
* Search for unclaimed money (from forgotten bank accounts, life
insurance, shares, etc) at
fido.gov.au/fido/fido.nsf/byheadline/Unclaimed+money+-+search+for+money?
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