It seems the rate cuts - fast and furious though they are -
have come too late for some.
While on a national basis mortgage delinquencies have crept up
only slightly, the same cannot be said of regional areas, where
families are struggling to meet repayments thanks to the residual
effects of high interest and fuel costs. The largest numbers of
mortgages 30 days in arrears were found in the outlying NSW areas
of Nelson Bay (4.2 per cent), Raymond Terrace and Cessnock (both
3.8 per cent).
The corresponding national figure was 2.13 per cent, up from
1.88 per cent, the Fitch Ratings analysis found.
However, Fitch measured the six months to September so the
research does not capture the big rate cuts this month and last
month.
For those who have been able to hold on, what difference are
those cuts making? That appears to depend on just how close to
defaulting people were.
The latest Fujitsu Mortgage Stress report reveals a 3 per cent
fall in the number of households under stress, to 770,000. But the
number under severe stress - so thinking about refinancing or
facing foreclosure - has jumped 13 per cent to 291,000.
Fujitsu attributes the rise to a decrease in additional revenue
such as overtime and investment income. Should unemployment begin
to climb, this will obviously have a more drastic effect; if we hit
a jobless rate of 5 per cent, it is estimated 1.1 million
households would come under some stress.
So what should you do if you are struggling to meet
repayments?
First of all, ensure they have been reduced for all the rate
cuts. Get on the phone to your bank - good luck here, they are a
bit busy at the moment! - as most will only decrease your automatic
repayments at your request.
Bear in mind, too, your interest rate could well fall another 75
basis points this week - $150 a month on a $300,000 loan - and will
probably drop by that amount again soon.
For this reason, you should beware of fixing. Many economists
expect interest rates to fall from 5.25 per cent to 2 per cent to 3
per cent by mid next year (see page 3).
But if rates at such levels would still pose a problem, perhaps
because your income has dropped, consider asking if your bank will
reamortise your loan. This involves spreading your outstanding
balance over a fresh 25 or 30 years, which cuts monthly payments
but ultimately means paying more in interest as well as an up-front
cost.
Probably the $64,000 question is what does this all mean for
property prices?
Real estate agents report an increase in fire-sales not just in
less affluent areas where people are having difficulty meeting
repayments but also at the top end of the market, as wealthier
individuals offload holiday homes to cut costs or, perhaps, to meet
margin calls on investment loans.
A combination of desperate sellers and oversupply means
depressed prices. But the phenomenon is seemingly contained to
affected areas.
Meanwhile, home-loan serviceability is getting better by the
month - and dramatically so. What is more, Australia has something
going for it that few other countries have: a serious housing
shortage.
So long as unemployment doesn't spike up, our property market
shouldn't spike down. At least, not for long.
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