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Make friends with your bank

Nicole Pedersen-McKinnon | December 3 2008 | The Sydney Morning Herald & The Age (subscribe)

It seems the rate cuts - fast and furious though they are - have come too late for some.

While on a national basis mortgage delinquencies have crept up only slightly, the same cannot be said of regional areas, where families are struggling to meet repayments thanks to the residual effects of high interest and fuel costs. The largest numbers of mortgages 30 days in arrears were found in the outlying NSW areas of Nelson Bay (4.2 per cent), Raymond Terrace and Cessnock (both 3.8 per cent).

The corresponding national figure was 2.13 per cent, up from 1.88 per cent, the Fitch Ratings analysis found.

However, Fitch measured the six months to September so the research does not capture the big rate cuts this month and last month.

For those who have been able to hold on, what difference are those cuts making? That appears to depend on just how close to defaulting people were.

The latest Fujitsu Mortgage Stress report reveals a 3 per cent fall in the number of households under stress, to 770,000. But the number under severe stress - so thinking about refinancing or facing foreclosure - has jumped 13 per cent to 291,000.

Fujitsu attributes the rise to a decrease in additional revenue such as overtime and investment income. Should unemployment begin to climb, this will obviously have a more drastic effect; if we hit a jobless rate of 5 per cent, it is estimated 1.1 million households would come under some stress.

So what should you do if you are struggling to meet repayments?

First of all, ensure they have been reduced for all the rate cuts. Get on the phone to your bank - good luck here, they are a bit busy at the moment! - as most will only decrease your automatic repayments at your request.

Bear in mind, too, your interest rate could well fall another 75 basis points this week - $150 a month on a $300,000 loan - and will probably drop by that amount again soon.

For this reason, you should beware of fixing. Many economists expect interest rates to fall from 5.25 per cent to 2 per cent to 3 per cent by mid next year (see page 3).

But if rates at such levels would still pose a problem, perhaps because your income has dropped, consider asking if your bank will reamortise your loan. This involves spreading your outstanding balance over a fresh 25 or 30 years, which cuts monthly payments but ultimately means paying more in interest as well as an up-front cost.

Probably the $64,000 question is what does this all mean for property prices?

Real estate agents report an increase in fire-sales not just in less affluent areas where people are having difficulty meeting repayments but also at the top end of the market, as wealthier individuals offload holiday homes to cut costs or, perhaps, to meet margin calls on investment loans.

A combination of desperate sellers and oversupply means depressed prices. But the phenomenon is seemingly contained to affected areas.

Meanwhile, home-loan serviceability is getting better by the month - and dramatically so. What is more, Australia has something going for it that few other countries have: a serious housing shortage.

So long as unemployment doesn't spike up, our property market shouldn't spike down. At least, not for long.

If you would like to appear in Investor Overhaul and receive free financial advice, simply send an email to investor@fairfax.com.au. You would need to be willing to have your photo and financial details published.

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