The size of the Reserve Bank's cut to interest rates last week
of three-quarters of a percentage point caught everybody by
surprise. It was the third cut in three months and takes the cash
rate to 5.25 per cent. With economic conditions deteriorating, it
is likely there are more cuts to come as the central bank pulls out
all the stops to try to avoid Australia dipping into recession.
The big banks say their cost of funding is still high and have
not been passing on the full cuts to their home-loan borrowers. The
Commonwealth Bank, Australia's biggest mortgage lender, was the
first of the big banks to announce a lowering of its standard
variable mortgage rate, by 0.58 of a percentage point to 7.74 per
cent.
For home-loan customers with a $200,000 mortgage, that
represents a saving of just above $70 a month and a saving for
those with a $400,000 mortgage of more than $140. The total monthly
saving of the past three rate cuts by the Commonwealth Bank on a
$400,000 mortgage is more than $540.
NAB and Westpac followed the Commonwealth Bank's lead and have
not passed on the full 0.75 percentage point cut. NAB will pass on
0.62 percentage points and Westpac will cut its interest rate by
0.65 percentage points.
Members Equity Bank has announced it will pass on the full 0.75
percentage point cut to its borrowers.
While that is good news for borrowers, experts who research the
lenders say that even bigger savings can be made by shopping
around. With a bit of arm twisting, the lender may even pass on the
full cut.
The first step for borrowers is to go to research websites
cannex.com.au and infochoice.com.au to find out how their mortgage
compares with what is offered by other lenders. Armed with this
information, they can approach their existing lender and ask for a
discount. If the borrower uses a lot of the lender's services, then
they should remember to point that out.
Andrew Inwood, founder of financial services industry market
researcher Brandmanagement, says most people never bother to ask
but many lenders will offer discounts to retain business. He says
some of the big banks are "routinely" discounting their interest
rates by a quarter of a percentage point and some will discount by
more.
While going to a mortgage broker is convenient, be careful
because they do not always offer the best deals.
Consumer watchdog Choice recently shopped around on behalf of
three borrowers. It found the best deals came through switching to
mortgages offered by credit unions and the online lending channels
of the big banks. However, these deals were not always offered
through mortgage brokers. Choice found credit unions and building
societies have, on average, "lower variable interest rates and
lower fees than the Big Four banks".
Frank Lopez, an analyst with researcher Cannex, says those who
took out fixed-rate mortgages before the middle of the year when
the expectation was for rate increases would be kicking themselves
now rates are falling. "Borrowers on fixed rates likely face huge
break costs if they want to get out to take advantage of further
possible rate cuts," he says.
They need to carefully consider whether the savings in interest
rates will outweigh the break costs. Cannex data shows the cheapest
three-year fixed rates are about 7 per cent. While the big banks'
standard rates are about 7.7 per cent, most borrowers receive a
discount of about 0.5 of a percentage point . That makes the
variable rate most people pay, at 7.2 per cent, only slightly
higher than three-year fixed rates.
With interest rates likely to fall further, choosing variable
rates looks like the better option.
More for the money
Markets are pricing in rate cuts that will take the cash rate to
3.75 per cent during the next six months.
The Reserve Bank has indicated it is prepared to cut even
further to head off the worst of the global financial crisis.
AMP Capital Investor's chief economist Shane Oliver says the
cash rate will most probably reach a low of 3.75 per cent by
September next year but the Reserve Bank may have to cut even
more.
"Unfortunately, it now looks like we are on the way to a mild
recession," Oliver says.
"The threat to growth domestically is far more significant than
was the case when interest rates were lowered to 4.25 per cent in
2001, which was the last low for interest rates."
CommSec chief equities economist Craig James is expecting the
cash rate to be cut by another 0.25 percentage point next month.
The Reserve Bank may then "sit back and see what the impact is on
the economy".
He says the Reserve Bank may have to reduce rates again next
year and the cash rate may have to be cut to 4.5 per cent.
"The speed of developments has taken everybody by surprise,"
James says.
"Midyear the Reserve Bank still thought that the next move in
rates would be up rather than down." However, it is possible that
things could turn up just as quickly as they have turned down.
"If the Obama effect comes through, perhaps everyone will become
a little bit more optimistic again and we will get an upturn like
the one we saw with the Iraq war in 2003, after which there was a
global bull market," he says.