What's new?
Perhaps Australia's politicians have a deep fear of a Homer
Simpson-type overseeing the controls in sector 7G of their local
nuclear power plant. Or perhaps there's a genuine concern about how
and where nuclear waste is disposed. Whatever the reason, despite
its merits as an emission-free energy source, nuclear power
generation in Australia looks to be off the cards for some
time.
It's a shame that we're not having a genuine debate about
nuclear fuel because with the price of other forms of energy rising
inexorably, the monetary and environmental arguments are becoming
more compelling. Elsewhere in the world, nuclear energy is on the
rise.
France produces nearly 80 per cent of its electricity from
nuclear power. Globally, there are 34 reactors under construction
and with more than 300 planned or proposed by 2025, many other
countries aim to increase electricity generation by nuclear
means.
Fuelling these nuclear plants will require uranium, lots of it.
Paladin Energy is well placed to benefit. Paladin is a relatively
simple company to understand. Its primary asset is the Langer
Heinrich Uranium Project in Namibia, which began production in
December.
Paladin owns 85 per cent of the Kayelekera Uranium Project in
Malawi, which remains on schedule to commence production in the
March quarter, next year.
In Australia, Paladin has a 50 per cent interest in a joint
venture with Summit Resources (of which Paladin owns 81.82 per
cent). The joint venture includes the Valhalla and Skal uranium
deposits in Mount Isa, Queensland. While mining is not permitted,
this could change.
The outlook Apart from the obvious risks of a
new development project moving into production and uncertainty over
the Australian assets, the outlook for Paladin remains strong.
Demand for electricity will continue to increase around the
world. Currently, coal-fired power stations meet most of that
demand. But coal is dirty and getting more expensive; clean coal
technologies look promising but they are not yet commercially
viable. We see the demand for uranium steadily increasing in the
years to come. As one of the few existing global producers, Paladin
is set to benefit strongly.
Price
Paladin's stock price had a remarkable run from late 2004 to
early last year, rising from less than $1 to $10. But the uranium
hype evaporated last year, bringing the share price back to
reasonable levels. The stock bottomed at $4 in May and is now
trading at more than $6.
Worth buying?
Paladin is not the cheapest stock around, trading about 40 times
2009 earnings forecasts. But the increase in earnings over the next
five years is expected to be substantial. For that reason Paladin
represents a worthy speculation in the energy sector, warranting a
small portfolio allocation. With increasing concerns over carbon
emissions, uranium mining and nuclear energy will come into focus.
As with oil, uranium will soon be seen as a strategically important
asset and this should be reflected in the performance of uranium
producers like Paladin.