The whole debate over petrol prices is starting to get silly. I
know oil prices are at record levels and the damage to the economy
could be substantial but unfortunately governments really can't do
that much about it.
Australia is caught up in a global phenomenon and it is simply
unrealistic to expect the Federal Government to wave a magic wand
and bring back the old days. We have to adjust our behaviour to
limit the financial pain.
Sure they can cut the excise on petrol but this would put a huge
dent in government revenues, meaning there would have to be a
trade-off and a cut in expenditure elsewhere. Some countries with
subsidised petrol prices have been forced to scrap these because
they were sending governments broke.
Rather than artificially cushioning petrol price rises, maybe we
should invest more in reducing our dependence on oil and developing
renewable energy sources at a faster rate.
It's also worth bearing in mind that most markets have "tipping
points" where prices rise to a certain level and then some factor
will tip the balance of momentum and prices will fall and stabilise
at a different level.
We've seen that in some of the grain markets in the past few
months. For example, last year the price of rice tripled but fell
by 30percent in recent months because governments built stockpiles
and limited exports while consumers looked for alternative staple
foods.
I have no idea what factors will bring about oil's tipping
point. It could be reduced demand as industrialised economies slow,
increased production from OPEC (Saudi Arabia is increasing
production and Iraq is back to pre-war capacity), new discoveries
which become viable at the higher price, a shift to renewable
alternatives or a combination of these factors.
History tells us market pendulums overshoot on the high and low
sides but invariably shift back to an acceptable medium over
time.
Rather than a knee-jerk reaction to satisfy short-term public
opinion, governments are often better off hanging tough and riding
out the swings.
That's not to say we'll see the oil price back down to $US30 a
barrel as it was five years ago because the fundamentals have
changed thanks to the booming economies of China and India.
Even if these economies slow on the back of weaker demand from
big customers in Europe and the US, they will still be solid
because of their own rapidly expanding domestic market. Their
burgeoning numbers of middle-class consumers have an enormous
thirst for luxury items.
There are some pretty amazing figures around at the moment which
give some idea of just how powerful China and India are becoming
and the amount of money being invested to keep pace with their
economic development.
Investment bank Morgan Stanley predicts emerging economies will
spend $US22trillion (that's $1000billion) on infrastructure during
the next 10 years and China will account for just under half that
amount.
China already spends 12percent of its gross domestic product on
infrastructure every year.
The country has spent more on infrastructure in the last five
years than it did in the whole of the 20th century.
Goldman Sachs says electricity capacity will have to rise
140percent in China and 80percent in India over the next decade to
cope with each country's projected economic growth.
During that time, air travel within China will jump by
350percent and within India by 200percent.
These are mind-boggling numbers that show these two massive
economies have enough growth internally to offset any slowdown by
overseas customers.
More roads, airports and railways are needed to support
manufacturing, farming and exports. As a result, shipping rates -
the cost of hiring the huge bulk carriers needed to export goods -
are at record levels.
The world has exported its manufacturing to China and India (and
its resultant pollution problems) and the momentum is, if anything,
increasing.
While Europe and the US slow, Australia is in an ideal
geographic position to be a major continuing resource supplier to
these emerging economic giants.