The worse the sharemarket performs, the more enthusiastic brokers become because everything is on sale.

And it'll take a miracle - well, not exactly, as a rebound in the US dollar which will in turn pull down oil prices will do - to prevent the average share fund from going backwards for the financial year.

Fund managers who were cashing up last year - wisely as it transpired - will be carrying some sizable capital gains tax bills in their distribution statements.

Watching your wealth shrink while your tax bill is going up is a hard one to explain away, so I'll leave that to them.

Meanwhile expect some concerted selling as fund managers cut their losses and offset capital gains.

While this is self-defeating, and the big funds are always going on about how investing is for the long term (not that you can quibble with that) this doesn't stop them indulging in the very short-term practice of dressing up their books on June 30 to look good for the year. Or, a least, less bad.

Yet for all that, the market's outlook isn't that grim.

I say this because there are more than a few hints that the central banks are planning, not before time, an assault against speculators who've been driving down the US dollar.

At the slightest hint that the US dollar is no longer a one way bet down, it'll snap back like a piece of elastic.

This would take a lot of the speculative heat out of the oil price, a bonus in itself, but, more to the point, would restore some much needed confidence in the global financial system where the greenback is the reserve currency.