Rapid increases in interest rates have slammed Australian home
owners with a mortgage to a point where they are now making the
highest repayments in the developed world. Thankfully, one
consolation is that generally house values are holding up.
I know there is a big increase in home repossessions and loan
defaults, and property values are relatively stagnant, but compared
with the rest of the world our real estate prices are staying
pretty solid.
The question now is whether Australian residential property
prices are overvalued and could we see the same sort of cracks
which are happening overseas.
The news from overseas is just appalling. A recent US house
price survey by the National Association of Realtors recorded an
average 7.7 per cent drop for the year to March - the biggest fall
since records started in 1982.
Would you believe states such as California and Florida are
seeing average falls of up to 30 per cent over the past year as the
credit crunch bites hard. At this stage 1-in-194 homes in the US
have been repossessed and that ratio is climbing constantly. There
are reports that some financiers are repossessing homes and then
asking the owners to stay rent free to protect the property from
vandals.
Now there are fears this sort of property crash could spread to
Britain based on its current valuations. Average house prices in
Britain are running at six times average earnings, which is way
above the historic average of 3.7 times wages.
Australian residential property values are currently double
Britain's historic high - 12 times earnings in Sydney and 10 times
in Melbourne.
Australian mortgage repayments are 57 per cent of average
incomes compared with 50 per cent in Britain where the historic
average is just 30 per cent.
A recent survey in The Economist magazine says Australia has the
most overvalued residential property in the world.
All these comparisons make for very nervous reading and you'd
think would point to an impending crash the size of that in the US.
That may very well be the case a few years down the track.
But for the moment there appears to be a couple of significant
planks underpinning Australian property values.
Firstly, the high skilled and business immigration numbers
combined with low construction levels is creating a shortage of
supply accentuated by the banks tightening development
financing.
Full employment also means that even though higher loan
repayments are stretching family budgets, household incomes won't
fall.
The other factor is the rental crisis. Strongly rising rents are
usually a precursor to rising values as investors chase property to
take advantage of the strong yields.
For property owners it looks like a crash in values isn't on the
cards for at least a few years. For those looking to get on the
property merry-go-round for the first time, property is not going
to get any more affordable either.
But it seems there is hope of picking up an affordable bargain
if you know where to look.
Last week on my Sunrise program we interviewed Terry Ryder who
is a former property writer and now runs a business called Hot
Spotting, which analyses property issues.
Terry Ryder put together a list of the top 12 places to buy a
house for under $200,000. Yep, $200,000 and many on the list are
well below that level down to $90,000 in one area.
Now before you chortle and say they must be in the middle of
nowhere, Ryder's 12 locations all have good community facilities
and reasonably good employment prospects for people moving there,
because they're booming.
There are only two locations on the list close to a capital city
- Melton near Melbourne and Elizabeth on the outskirts of
Adelaide.
Ryder says most areas close to Sydney and Brisbane were priced
out of this list.
His personal pick is Parkes in regional NSW because of its
location as a transport hub.
In Queensland, Charters Towers is the best pick while in NSW
there's Broken Hill, Glen Innes and Inverell.
In Victoria, the best buys are Gippsland, Melton and
Mildura.
Further south in Tassie, George Town and the Rosebery-Zeehan
area are on the list.
In South Australia, Elizabeth rounds out the top 12.