In the space of six months, just about everything anyone thought
they knew about the Australian home loan market has changed.
Mortgage rates no longer track the official rate set by the central
bank; borrowers must jump through hoops rather than fend off
overzealous lenders; instead of racing to beat rising house prices,
prudent buyers must factor in the possibility of stagnant or even
falling values.
Previous assumptions about where the best home loan deals lie
need to be examined, then re-examined. Many borrowers spurned
non-bank lenders last year, for instance, only to be socked by
higher rates from the big banks this year.
Resi Mortgage Corporation's head of consumer advocacy, Lisa
Montgomery, says the result is that people are confused and
suffering from inertia when it comes to their home loans.
"A lot of people have lost confidence in all lenders. They're
not sure what they should do," Montgomery says.
So, let's look at some of the big questions facing borrowers in
this changed landscape.
How tight are loans/
Lenders usually don't announce the fact that they're tightening
their lending criteria but analysts are unanimous in saying that
this is happening.
"We are definitely seeing lenders tightening up their lending
standards and lending criteria," says Mark Hewitt, the general
manager of sales and operations with Australian Finance Group,
which describes itself as Australia's largest mortgage broker.
"In the credit crunch, with the difficulty of raising money,
lenders are looking for assets to be much cleaner."
That said, Paul Dowling, the principal analyst with banking
research firm East & Partners, says talk of "credit rationing"
is overstating things.
"There's a general move towards more conservative lending but I
wouldn't quite describe it as credit rationing," he says.
"The banks have money to lend - it's a question of the
[borrower's] credit profile and the [profit] margin."
Observers say all lenders are tidying up their credit processes
to varying degrees, with the most marked changes coming from
smaller lenders, which now have difficulty raising funds on
wholesale markets at a reasonable price due to the global credit
crunch.
Among the changes, maximum loan-to-valuation ratios are coming
down. In other words, people must now stump up a bigger deposit -
harking back to the days when the rule of thumb was that potential
borrowers had to turn up with a 20 per cent deposit.
Broker group Mortgage Choice says Adelaide Bank, for instance,
now requires borrowers to have 10 to 20 per cent of the value of
the property as a deposit when they apply for an interest-only
loan. Previously the bank would have lent 95 to 100 per cent of the
value.
Newcastle Permanent has changed its servicing ratio and
borrowers must now have a greater disposable income after loan
repayments and other commitments, the broker says.
So-called 105 per cent loans - where you can borrow more than
the value of a property - are falling away as well, says Warren
O'Rourke, the national corporate affairs manager for Mortgage
Choice.
With line-of-credit loans, where you can dip into the equity in
your home for other spending, rates in some cases have moved by a
greater amount than for the lender's standard variable loan.
"A number of lenders weren't necessarily pricing for risk on
low-doc loans or line-of-credit loans," O'Rourke says.
"Traditionally there was a premium over standard variable rates but
that gradually disappeared in the face of competition. Now they're
starting to rejig them."
Dowling says there's been a "significant" drop-off in low-doc
loans, which relieve borrowers of the burden of proving their
income.
O'Rourke says the bigger lenders are just "tinkering" with their
criteria. "In some cases LVRs have changed but [only] on specific
product types."
Denis Orrock, the general manager of researcher InfoChoice, says
lenders are looking more closely at borrowers and at property
valuations, "particularly for certain property types and in certain
areas".
In July last year Money ran some numbers through online
borrowing calculators to see how much lenders were prepared to put
on the table for a hypothetical household. At that time, ANZ's
calculator indicated the bank might offer a loan requiring 46.3 per
cent of the household's gross income for repayments.
In a recent repeat of the exercise, ANZ remained the most
generous lender but the result came to 41.7 per cent of gross
income. An ANZ representative was unavailable to comment.
BankWest's result dropped from 43.7 per cent to 39.2 per cent.
Its head of mortgages and savings, Paul Vivian, says the Perth
lender, owned by British bank HBOS, regularly reviews its criteria.
"We're undergoing one of those reviews right now - they're just
regular reviews and there's nothing unusual in that," Vivian says.
"But it would be fair to say that, across the industry, there will
be a review of credit practices, if not wholesale changes."
Interest rates
Everyone sighed with relief at the Reserve Bank's decision last
week to leave the official cash rate at 7.25 per cent and normally
that would be good news for borrowers. However, lenders have shown
in recent months - and weeks - that they're prepared to lift rates
independently of the central bank.
Home loan rates are now determined by the cost of raising funds
on the global credit markets, where money has become much more
expensive since dodgy US housing loans were bundled up and sold to
investors.
"The connection between the Reserve's official cash rate and the
cost of funding for the banks hasn't quite broken but is almost
broken," Dowling says.
Even if the Reserve Bank remains on hold, market rates may still
move higher. What's worse, there's no guarantee that once the cycle
turns and the Reserve starts to cut rates that lenders will
follow.
In Britain, a recent Bank of England rate cut wasn't passed on
uniformly, with new borrowers and those coming off fixed-rate loans
reported to have missed out on the savings. Asked what would happen
here in the event of an official rate cut, Steve Blinkhorn, the
head of home loans for St George Bank, says in the past the bank
has been quick to pass on any rate cuts. He says, though, that
can't be guaranteed "in the current environment".
Dowling says the main hope for borrowers is the banks' "manic
obsession with market share", which should cap potential rate
increases as they fight over customers.
BankWest's Vivian says moving independently of the Reserve "is a
very difficult decision, and we spend an awful lot of time debating
how much you move while trying to balance the impact on customers.
All of the banks have been forced to move more than we would
like."
Bank or non-bank
Non-bank lenders were the first to feel the impact of the global
credit crunch - and to pass on those costs - because they rely on
wholesale markets to raise money to fund their lending
operations.
In contrast, Australian banks use their depositors' money to
finance a large chunk of their lending - about half of lending for
the big banks and about a third in the case of regional banks,
Dowling says - so they're not as exposed to rising rates on global
credit markets.
The result was that in the second half of last year many
borrowers backed away from non-bank lenders, seeking what they
thought would be safe haven with the banks.
Orrock says it's a mistake to assume that bigger is better.
Indeed, the table shows that credit unions and non-bank lenders
have many of the best deals (see table on opposite page).
"If you did refinance from a non-bank into one of the banks
before January, when the banks also started increasing rates, you'd
be feeling cheesed off at the moment," he says.
The state of play is that banks and non-banks have "topped up"
the Reserve Bank's official cash rate rises by roughly the same
amount.
The Reserve has lifted the official cash rate one percentage
point since August, while the big banks and non-bank lenders have
moved about 1.4 percentage points.
Credit unions and building societies, which have the benefit of
being at least partly funded by household deposits, have managed to
undercut them, however. Umbrella group Abacus-Australian Mutuals
says that, on average, mutuals' home loan rates are about 0.2
percentage points behind those of the banks.
"There's some excellent value - a number of credit unions and
building societies haven't passed on rises and, where they have, in
general they've been much slower to pass higher costs on," says
Abacus's chief executive, Louise Petschler.
However, she acknowledges there's a limit to the capacity of
some mutuals to meet any surge of interest from borrowers looking
for bargain rates.
"For some, it's a good opportunity - they're liquid, they're
ready to roll," she says. For others, it will be a case of managing
growth carefully.
Some mutuals are open only to members of certain occupations and
are not included in the table.
House prices
In the past borrowers felt compelled to race against rising
house prices - borrowing to the hilt to get into the market before
prices left them behind.
Some borrowed on the basis that capital growth would leave them
debt-free when they sold.
But those assumptions may have to change, too.
UBS's chief economist, Scott Haslem, says most indicators point
to economic growth - and jobs growth - slowing in Australia.
"It seems to us that 15 per cent growth in house prices year on
year is unsustainable," he says. "You're looking at flat to minus 5
per cent as a realistic range."
In 2004, house price growth went from 20 per cent to zero in the
space of a year, he says. "Our expectation is for a similar effect
this time."
Morgan Stanley market strategist Gerard Minack thinks prices
could fall by 10 per cent in the next two to three years if there's
a soft landing for the economy but by as much as 25 to 30 per cent
if we fall hard.
The International Monetary Fund recently said Australian
property was among the most overvalued in the world and that at
least 25 per cent of the increase in value over the past decade
couldn't be justified by fundamentals.
The Housing Industry Association, however, has dismissed talk of
widespread price falls as "way off the mark".
Last week's Bureau of Statistics data showed a 1.1 per cent rise
in house prices nationally in the March quarter, or 13.8 per cent
over the year. However, Commonwealth Bank economists say the data
masks "significantly divergent trends" in the capital cities.
"Higher interest rates are likely to suppress demand for house
purchases in a national sense but there are still likely to be
significant differences in demand conditions prevailing in the next
five years," they say in an analysis of the data. "The
mining-related capital cities such as Perth, Brisbane, Darwin and
now Adelaide, with stronger population, jobs and income growth, are
likely to have relatively larger house price rises."
Be prepared
Tighter lending standards mean that people must have their
finances in good shape before they approach a lender.
Resi's head of consumer advocacy, Lisa Montgomery, says a clean
credit profile can mean access to a wider range of loans -
potentially at better rates - and quicker approval.
"A borrower's credit rating is one of the most important
criteria lenders look at, along with the loan-to-value ratio and
the borrower's ability to service the loan," she says.
The way you've managed all your past and present credit
arrangements - such as credit cards, mobile phone accounts and
retailers' interest-free packages - will count for a lot.
"By reviewing your credit profile before applying for a loan,
you can identify any issues that may be of concern to lenders and
look to clean up any outstanding financial arrangements," she
says.
Resi suggests taking these steps:
Review your credit reference. This includes information such as
inquiries about you by lenders, any credit card defaults and
bankruptcies. You can check your credit reference at
http://www.mycreditfile.com.au.
Consider reducing the number of cards you have or your spending
limits. Lenders look at the amount of credit you have access to,
not just what you owe. Cut up cards or reduce the limits and you
may be eligible for a bigger home loan.
Don't leave bills in arrears. Even telephone bills can appear on
credit reports - nothing's too small and everything counts. Even if
a loan or account is no longer current, past credit problems can
still show up.
Explain any arrears or defaults to your lender upfront. It's
better to reveal any past or present credit problems to your lender
yourself at the time of application, rather than have them
discovered later.
Avoid multiple applications for credit. A credit report shows
applications for credit, not just those approved, and multiple
inquiries can ring alarm bells with lenders. Apply for credit only
once you've carried out your initial research.