What's new? There's a clear disconnect between the sharemarket
performance of companies that produce tangible goods and those that
do not. This is particularly evident when one examines large
resources companies and those in the financial services sector -
the former lean to earnings growth, the latter face considerable
headwinds in the years ahead.
Highlighting this are the robust third-quarter results from
diversified mining giant BHP Billiton. Pleasingly for its chief
executive officer, Marius Kloppers, BHP's standout performance came
from its iron ore division. Iron ore operations are the primary
battleground between BHP and Rio in the merger drama.
BHP claimed victory in the latest skirmish, trumping Rio's 16
per cent iron ore growth with 22 per cent for the quarter. It
should be noted, though, that BHP produces far less of the material
than Rio in absolute terms, making its growth rate easier to
achieve.
Iron ore is the commodity of the moment. This is in large part
driven by China's insatiable steel mills and massive
industrialisation. As a result, both spot and contract prices are
at all-time highs and similar price strength is evident across much
of BHP's product range.
The outlook Continued commodity price strength is central to
BHP's outlook and, indeed, the resources sector in general. Ongoing
growth in China and, to a lesser extent, India is paramount.
It would be naive to suggest that a slowing US economy will have
no impact on the growth of these regions.
Yet both countries have significantly strengthened their
internal economies. As such, they have an enhanced capacity to
maintain momentum in the face of a flagging US economy, albeit at a
potentially slower pace.
As a result, while the market tends to view BHP's earnings as
being at a cyclical high, the prospect of continued commodity price
strength gives further earnings upside.
Price Investor enthusiasm for BHP began to build early last
year, lifting the stock to a record high of $47.70 in October.
However, in the months following, the stock has largely been
contained within a range of between $30 and $40.
Early last month the stock broke through $40, returning focus to
October's all-time high.
A pause for consolidation is likely but, given the strength of
the recent rally, any price correction is likely to prove
relatively shallow.
Worth buying? From a valuation perspective, the mining giant
continues to represent good long-term value. It currently trades on
a consensus 2009 price-to-earnings ratio of about 11 times.
With commodities firmly entrenched in a bull market, the stock
gives investors an attractive risk-reward profile over the medium
to longer term.