It's every investor's Holy Grail. The small company with the
potential to become the next BHP - or at least the next Worley
Parsons or ABC Learning. The company set on a skybound trajectory
with the likelihood of growing its earnings year-in and year-out.
The company that currently trades for peanuts but with the
potential to increase its share price many times.
The company, in short, that could turn your investment
portfolio's performance from merely respectable to
shoot-the-lights-out fantastic.
Welcome to the world of the small companies funds. The enormous
returns reported by these funds in recent years are proof positive
that there are rich pickings outside the top 150 or 200 stocks.
Over the past financial year, Australia's top-performing small
companies funds returned more than 50 per cent. The top three -
Macquarie's Small Companies Fund, Pengana's Emerging Companies Fund
and Challenger's Microcap Fund - returned 82.23, 70.78 and 68.46
per cent respectively, according to researcher Morningstar.
Small companies funds have been some of the best performers in
the market over recent years. According to Morningstar, the best
small companies funds have returned more than 30 per cent each year
for the past five years, meaning investors who got in early have
multiplied their money.
But this is not a market where finding rich pickings is easy.
Over the past 16 years, says Macquarie portfolio manager Neil
Carter, the Small Ordinaries Accumulation Index has returned just
11.6 per cent a year. By comparison, larger companies have returned
12.3 per cent.
Carter says the median small companies manager over that period
has returned 21.9 per cent but if you were with a poorly performing
fund, or merely a mug punter, your returns could have been much
less. "It's like looking for a needle in a haystack," he says.
Michael Courtney, the smaller companies portfolio manager at
Challenger, says he would be thrilled to have just one ABC Learning
or Worley Parsons in his portfolio each year. Both were listed on
the Stock Exchange as minnows and have grown into billion dollar
enterprises. But even a company that can grow from $100 or $200
million to $500 million or more can be a tasty proposition.
The reason that small companies funds can outperform is the same
reason it's dead easy to lose money at this end of the market. Few
small companies attract the attention of brokers. On the plus side,
this means good companies can be bought inexpensively. For those
prepared to do their research - and most good small companies
managers visit hundreds of companies each year - there is a great
opportunity to identify growing companies and get in before the
crowd.
But the lack of independent research also means investors are
reliant on their own homework. Retail investors, in particular,
can't just stroll into a managing director's office and start
asking questions. Good information can be hard to come by. And
while the occasional hot tip might pay off, just as many are likely
to fail.
Carter says he has found companies that make a fabulous
investment story have three things in common:
* They operate in a large and growing market.
* They have an unfair competitive advantage.
* They have the business model needed to turn the first two
criteria into sales and profits.
Steve Black, Pengana's small companies fund manager, says his
approach is to start by eliminating resource companies, loss-making
companies and property trusts. This leaves it with 800 to 900
companies it can research aggressively.
Like most small companies funds, Pengana is a stock picker and
relies heavily on understanding each company's business and
finances. Black says he values stocks on their future cash flow and
looks for companies that are undervalued relative to their likely
future earnings.
Quality of management is also important. "There's not a lot of
depth in management among companies worth $100 to $600 million," he
says. "So the chief executive will have a large part to play in
determining its success."
Like Carter, Black says it is critical to understand
management's strategy for growing the company and to be confident
they can deliver on those plans.
"We look for companies with a good earnings profile for a least
three years and we have to like the guys running the business,"
says Don Williams, portfolio manager with the boutique Platypus
funds management company, which manages the Australian Unity Acorn
Microcap Trust - one of last year's 50 per cent-plus
performers.
"If a company doesn't have those two qualities, the rest is
irrelevant."
Unlike many retail investors, small companies funds are wary of
speculative investments, preferring solid earnings and a strong
business franchise to lots of blue sky.
"We could play uranium stocks and make 50 per cent easily,"
Courtney says. "But we don't like losing money. [Good returns] have
been easier to get over the past three or four years but
historically it's been quite easy to lose money in smaller
companies."
So what are the fund managers tipping as the next big growth
stories?
A peek into their portfolios reveals some lesser-known gems, and
an insight into how the managers choose them. Here are their
picks:
Arasor International (ARR)
One of Neil Carter's picks, Arasor is a technology company
manufacturing optoelectronic chips - a combination of silicon chips
with fibre optics that provide greater access to bandwidth, faster
speeds and richer content. Carter says these chips were not
previously able to be produced in large volumes at a reasonable
cost but Arasor has developed that capability and is supplying
markets such as China and India as they leapfrog the old copper
wire technology and roll out wireless networks based on fibre
optics.
Carter says the company is also active in consumer electronics
where its chips can be used in products like laser TVs and digital
projection. He says Arasor plans to roll out digital projection
through cinemas and there are also opportunities for its use in
mobile phones. At last week's prices of about $3.20, Arasor is
expected to move from a loss in 2006 to a profit in 2007 and
revenue is expected to rise from $29.6 million in 2006 to $120
million in 2007.
Austar United Communications (AUN)
Challenger's Michael Courtney has been invested in Austar for
about four years and reckons it still has plenty of growth
potential. He says the regional pay TV provider has a monopolistic
position in the market and the penetration of pay TV in Australia
is still relatively low compared to other countries. "[Penetration
levels] are about 25 per cent and growing 1 to 2 per cent each
year," he says. "At the same time, prices are increasing every year
and the company is selling add-ons such as personal recording
devices."
Courtney says Austar can deliver double-digit earnings growth
every year for at least the next three to five years and is well
positioned in a growth industry. "We like to focus on industries
with good growth potential," he says. "Regardless of how good
management is, if you're in a declining industry it's hard to make
money."
As it happens, Courtney says, Austar has "very good management"
that is also good at managing the company's capital base. It has
been able to add value to shareholder through capital returns. At
last week's levels of about $1.60, Austar is trading on a forecast
2008 price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of about 21.
Blue Freeway (BLU)
Carter says this is a "pretty exciting" company in the online
digital media industry. "There's a big structural shift happening,
especially among younger people, who are watching less TV and
picking up their entertainment on YouTube, Facebook and so on," he
says. "There are big changes happening but advertising is a long
way behind. Our question is, how do we play that? If you look at
companies like Wotif, they are very expensive, so we're taking more
of a picks-and-shovels approach."
Carter says Blue Freeway is a specialist online advertising
agency that is developing very powerful campaigns for online and
digital use - including mobiles. It is one of the few players in
this market and, as the traditional ad agencies are all geared up
to create TV ads, it is able to position itself as a specialist and
attract good talent.
Carter says Blue is taking market share from traditional ad
agencies and operating in a high-growth part of the market. Its
last guidance to the market indicated it would generate organic
revenue growth of 60 per cent in 2007 and 100 per cent profit
growth.
He says it has "very good management" and a strong acquisition
model - it is adding acquisitions around the world, which should
also generate growth. At last week's levels of about $2.25, it is
trading on a 2008 P/E of about 18.
"We would expect it to continue to grow at very impressive rates
for the next few years as advertising dollars catch up with what
eyeballs are doing," Carter says. "Plus, everyone wants the prized
younger demographics."
Cabcharge (CAB)
With a $1.5 billion market capitalisation, Cabcharge probably
doesn't qualify as a minnow any more. But Pengana's Steve Black
believes it still has good growth potential. He says the company is
Australia's largest provider of electronic payment terminals and is
benefiting from the strong migration to electronic payments. It's
estimated only 25 to 30 per cent of taxi fares are paid
electronically, though this number is growing.
Black says Cabcharge also recently joined up with Singapore's
ComfortDelGro, which has a strong position in private bus ownership
in that country. The two have bought up a lot of Sydney's private
bus operators and have developed a strong presence in Newcastle.
Black says this is a low-risk business as contracts with the
Government mean the private operators don't wear the risks of seats
not being filled to the extent that they normally would.
At last week's prices of about $13, he says Cabcharge is trading
on a 2008 P/E of 20 to 21 times and is expecting to grow profit by
about 40 per cent in 2007 and more than 20 per cent in 2008.
Mineral resources (MIN)
Black says Mineral Resources is one of the services companies
riding the mining boom. It owns and operates large ore-crushing
machinery for companies such as BHP and Rio, on long-term contracts
where the companies agree to crush a set volume.
"It's contract mining," Black says. "Most of the crushers are
targeting the iron ore industry, which is projected to grow
dramatically over the next three to five years. They're going to
need crushers to extract the ore from the ground."
Black says Mineral Resources is the largest player in the
Australian market and crushes about 30 million tonnes a year. But
such is the size of its crushers that a single new contract could
add 5 million tonnes - and the company is bidding on a number of
contracts at present. He says Mineral Resources also operates fines
recovery and pipeline infrastructure businesses and recently
entered into a long term contract with the Chinese investment house
CITIC in the fines recovery area.
Black says the company's growth is contingent on contract wins
but it has grown its profits by more than 20 per cent a year over
the past four years. He says he expects this "to at least
continue".
At last week's levels of about $3.50, Black says it is trading
on a 2008 P/E ratio of about 14 times and has no debt.
Neptune Marine Services (NMS)
Carter says Neptune is a good example of a company with an
unfair competitive advantage. Neptune has developed a patented
technology for underwater dry-welding, which has huge potential in
applications such as oil rigs, underwater pipelines and
shipping.
Traditionally if an oil rig in, say, the Gulf of Mexico, needed
repairs, its owners had two choices. An underwater wet-weld could
be used as an emergency measure but moisture and salt would be
welded into the repair and it would only last for a matter of
weeks.
The alternative was to dry dock the rig and weld it there which
could prove time consuming and expensive.
Carter says a Gulf of Mexico rig could take six months to
decouple, tow to port, dock, repair, and get back into action. In
the meantime, production that could be worth millions of dollars a
day was halted.
Neptune's Nepsys system allows the repair to be done in situ
while the rig is still operating. Lloyds of London is prepared to
issue a certificate that these repairs are as good as a dry dock
weld.
"The potential market is the shipping, oil, and gas industries,"
Carter says. "The market is absolutely enormous and they're only
starting to scratch the surface."
In Australia Neptune is active mostly on the North West Shelf
but has not yet penetrated the Timor Sea or Bass Strait. Carter
says the company has the potential to double its Australian
operations and has bought a dive operation to gain entree to the
Gulf of Mexico. A further plus is that the company has recently
changed tack to offer a full-service inspection, repairs and
maintence offering so that its customers can outsource the lot.
Carter says Neptune's revenues were $1.5 million in 2006 when it
was merely a technology company trying to license its technology
but revenues are now expected to grow to $27 million this year and
$70 million in 2008.
At last week's prices of about $1.06, Carter says he has it on a
2008 P/E of 14.1, with the potential for more upside.
Reckon (RKN)
Courtney bought shares in Reckon after dipping his toe into the
accounting software market by investing in competitor MYOB. He says
MYOB and Reckon (through its Quicken software) have about 95 per
cent of the accounting software market. "It's basically a duopoly
and they're good places to make money," he says.
Courtney says Reckon is debt free and benefits from the large
number of small businesses that start up each year. "One of the
first things they do is buy an accounting software package. Sales
of those packages have been growing every year for the past 10
years."
As well as its traditional product, Courtney says Reckon has
been developing software for the professional services industry.
"It had 20 to 25 per cent growth last year and has made a few
acquisitions in other areas. We say it has potential to grow by
expanding its offering to clients. The more you can offer your
existing clients, the more they tend to rely on you, so you tend to
keep your customers longer."
At last week's levels of about $1.25, Reckon is trading on a
2008 P/E of about 15.
Reverse Corporation (REF)
Platypus's Don Williams says telecommunication service provider
Reverse still has good growth potential, though it has moved from
trading on a P/E of 12 when he bought it to about 21 on 2008's
forecasts. Reverse's main business is owning and operating reverse
charge calling services. It has a growing mobile reverse charge
business and Williams says much of its growth will come from its
ability to take its products into other geographic areas.
"Its main market is Britain and its main customer BT," he says.
"But it is also in Australia and it's starting up in Ireland, and
the next major market is Spain. If it can get Spain it will add $1
or more to the stock but getting into each new area takes
years."
RR Australia (RRA)
This is Radio Rentals, the household names that rents out
everything from plasma TVs to furniture, computers and exercise
bikes to "cash or credit-constrained" consumers. Listed in December
last year, Pengana's Black says its appeal to the fund manager
comes from a new management team that is setting out to
reinvigorate the business. He says management is now much more
client-oriented and has been trying to build awareness through
advertising.
But Radio Rentals is not your traditional retailer. It has shop
fronts but Black says about 70 per cent of its enquiries and sales
come by telephone. "They don't need to roll out new stores to grow
their business," he says.
"So long as they increase awareness that can generate growth
without a large increase in costs, so they get a stronger
drop-through to profit growth from an incremental increase in
sales."
At last week's levels of about 85 cents, Black says RR is
trading on a 2008 P/E of about 10.5, which "is pretty cheap". Its
first profit report exceeded forecasts and Black says Pengana is
strongly attracted to its strong operating leverage and the quality
of its new management.
Technology one (TNE)
Williams says he invested in Technology One when it listed in
1999 and has seen it fall from $1.50 to 20 cents, before recovering
to recent levels of about $1.20. At the top of the tech boom,
Willliams says the software company became "horribly overvalued"
but he says it has always had good earnings.
Technology One's specialty is developing and distributing
financial management and accounting software solutions. It has also
developed software for specific industries, such as education and
local government. After five years of research and development, it
is gaining traction in higher education and set up a fledling
operation in Britain.
Currently capitalised at about $375 million, Williams says it
has a great core business and is "transitioning from a small, small
company to a large small cap". Whether it becomes a $2 billion
company, he says, will depend on its success in entering the
British market. At last week's share price of about $1.25, it is
trading on a 2008 P/E of about 22.
ABC LEARNING CENTRES
Listed March 2001
Share price then 40�
Share price now $7.02
Earnings per share then 9.4� (2002)
Earnings per share 2006 27cents
Market capitalisation now $3.3 billion
WORLEY PARSONS
Listed November 2002
Share price then $1.74
Share price now $35.40
Earnings per share then 17.1� (2003)
Earnings per share 2006 67.9 cents
Market capitalisation now $8.1 billion