It's easy to think that it doesn't get better than this. Still low interest rates, falling inflation, rising dollar.
But you're right, it won't get better than this.
The first warning sign is the near consensus that interest rates won't rise much this year, inflation will drop a little and then rise a little and the dollar will go on climbing.
But in an unnoticed throwaway line last week, US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said he took "scant comfort" in the fact that economists agreed with him that the "short term", which we can take to be the next year, was benign.
"When the future surprises, history tells us, it often surprises us all," he said.
On Greenspan's theory an upset will have to be something from left field.
His suggestions of what this could be are: massive US budget deficit, huge current account deficit (a problem we share) and, yes, Fed-engineered rising interest rates (his exact words were "the real federal funds rate will eventually need to rise toward a more neutral level" at the moment real rates are "close to zero") or a bond sell-off ( "an appreciable backup in long-term interest rates is possible").
Mind you, if he's right that we're all wrong, including himself, hopefully that rules all these out.
What we do know is that when there's an economic schism giant deficits and a falling currency something has to give; it won't be pleasant and interest rates will be involved.
A bond sell-off would push fixed-term mortgage rates up though savers could "afford to be patient when looking to lock in fixed rate returns," Simon Watkin of FIIG Securities said.
Certainly being cashed up is the way to go whenever there are financial storms looming. Not that the markets are on fire anyway.
Property has fizzled out thanks to rate rises if not the weight of its own excesses.
True, the sharemarket is riding strong economic growth and good, so far, profit results. But it isn't immune to the unknown quantity of Wall Street where profits are doing well because of a surge in productivity that will eventually fade.
For borrowers, fixing part of your loan will give you extra security. But don't pay more than you do now: St George, Hibernian Credit Union and Newcastle Permanent are offering rates below the 7.07 per cent standard variable rate.
What can go wrong
Internationally
Out of control election year budget deficit in the US.
Massive US balance of payments deficit triggers run on US dollar.
Rising oil prices.
Recovery in US stays jobless.
Inflation rises because of slump in US dollar.
Chinese economy overheats and implodes.
Imbalance between US and Chinese exchange rates.
Interest rates rise.
US productivity surge dries up.
Japan slumps back into recession.
Nationally
Out of control election year budget deficit in Australia.
Record Australian balance of payments deficit.
Housing slump.
·Property developer collapses because of bank credit rationing on inner city units.
Safe havens
At-call deposit: 5.25 per cent (Citibank) online.
12-month deposit: 5.85 per cent (Hibernian CU).
3-year fixed mortgage: 6.65 per cent (Hibernian CU).
5-year fixed mortgage: 6.94 per cent (Newcastle Permanent).
