Solomon lew is like a dog with a bone. He is simply not going to disappear.
He might have lost his seat on the Coles Myer board, but he is regularly quoted in the media about his views on the performance of the giant retailer. And there are no prizes for guessing what he has to say.
Take, for example, the four recent board appointments. No sooner had they warmed their seats than Mr Lew had them in his sights, all guns blazing. In widely reported comments to the media, he described them as "second-class appointments", as part of the "boys' club", and lacking "retail experience". It was vintage Lew.
Mr Lew's attack was given added potency by the fact Coles Myer's credit rating had been cut from BBB-plus to BBB by the credit rating agency Standard & Poor's. It also gave the new directors - Ferrier Hodgson co-founder Tony Hodgson, former James Hardie chief executive Keith Barton, Qantas executive Sandra McPhee and Britain's Michael Wemms, chairman of the House of Fraser - a taste of what they can expect in the future.
The simple fact is Mr Lew has not accepted his eviction from the Coles Myer board. He used every weapon in his arsenal to keep his seat, and when that failed, has conducted a guerilla media campaign ever since. There is no reason to think it will stop.
What this means is that any good news emanating from the retailer will always get a negative spin in the media. It certainly makes the task of chief executive John Fletcher much harder. And it is why this columnist believes a share price above $7 provides a good selling opportunity.
Coles Myer shares have gained 34 per cent in three months, from a 12-month low of $5.38 on March 12 to a high of $7.21 on June 17. Underpinning the stock's return to investor favour has been the retailer's insistence that 2002-03 earnings will be closer to $435 million than $425 million.
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Mr Fletcher knows this number does not reflect the company's full potential, especially considering its market dominance, but the market has been prepared to be forgiving towards him and his team of senior executives in the wake of last year's board upheaval and given signs they are getting Coles Myer back on track.
Analysts says Coles Myer's recent deal to take over the franchise operations of Shell Australia is evidence that Mr Fletcher is getting it right. Under the deal, Coles Myer will hand over $94 million to six franchise operators who run 584 Shell stations nationwide, giving it up to 15 per cent of the petrol industry and another $3 billion in sales.
But retail is a fickle industry. So many factors - interest rates, consumer tastes and the broader economy - are out of management's hands. In the case of Coles Myer, a disgruntled Mr Lew magnifies every negative. Now is the time to check out with a profit in the trolley.
CML: $7.06
Sector: Retail
Business: Operates supermarkets, liquor, department, discount and apparel stores and fast-food restaurants.
Market cap: $8559 million
Dividend (July 30, 02): 25.5 cents
Yield: 3.6 per cent
Price-earnings multiple (July 30, 02):24.4 times
At July 4
BULLS
Publishing & Broadcasting (PBL, $9.84) OUTPERFORM
Hamish Foletta, a financial consultant with Smith Barney, says Smith Barney has upgraded its 2004 financial year earnings per share estimate for the company, reflecting stronger-than-expected TV revenue growth and the end of Nine Networks' earnings downgrades. "The sheer resilience of Crown's earnings base remains a stand-out, while magazine earnings outlook continues to be robust," he says, adding that it is a medium-risk investment.
See disclosures about this company at www.smithbarney.com.au
Maxitrans Industries (MXI $0.425) BUY
Paul Pekish, a senior client adviser with Paterson Ord Minnett, says that during the past two years Maxitrans has restructured its operations. "A strong order book through to April provides encouragement that revenue in the second half is set to remain healthy," he says, predicting a full-year profit of $5.7 million.
Colorado Group (CDO, $3.18) BUY
Michael Heffernan, a FW Holst & Co sharemarket analyst and investment adviser, says this footwear, apparel and adventure wear retailer has been a star performer since listing in December 1999. "After recent solid results, the company expects further opportunities for improvement," he says, adding that Colorado is attractively priced, has a favourable price-earnings ratio and offers a fully franked dividend yield above 3.5 per cent.
BEARS
Prime Television (PRT, $2.24) UNDERPERFORM
Hamish Foletta, a financial consultant with Smith Barney, says Prime's recent stock price rise was influenced by anticipation of a deal in the event of changes in cross-media ownership laws. "Prime seems a logical target in the event of a deregulatory change, but such an outcome now appears some considerable time away," he says, adding that it is a medium-risk investment.
See disclosures about this company at www.smithbarney.com.au
Jubilee Mines (JBM $2.05) SELL
Paul Pekish, a senior client adviser with Paterson Ord Minnett, says Jubilee is a barometer for the nickel price. "The company's push to address its growth profile through exploration or corporate activity is increasingly important with a currently limited four-year mine life," he says, adding there are other nickel stocks with more favourable prices relative to their valuation.
WMC Resources (WMR, $3.27) SELL
Michael Heffernan, a sharemarket analyst and investment adviser with FW Holst & Co, says the diversified minerals group disappointed the market when it forecasted little or no growth in earnings in the June half compared with the December half. "With the outlook for a pick-up in world economic activity cloudy, any lift in commodity prices from current levels are likely to be constrained," which means there are better opportunities elsewhere in the resources sector, he says.
Wildcard
Environmental Infrastructure (EIL, $0.15) SELL
Environmental Infrastructure is now "well-positioned" in the "long-term growth" sectors of environmental and renewable energy, according to its website. It has invested in EarthPower Technologies, which is involved in a food waste-to-energy project and has wind power and other renewable energy projects in the pipeline. Such projects appeal to investors with a conscience. The problem for Environmental Infrastructure is keeping investor interest while projects come to fruition. In early 2000, the shares traded almost as high as 30 cents. But that rally has long petered out. At 15 cents, it is enjoying some buying interest - presenting an opportunity (for some) to sell. It is definitely not a buy.